⚽ UEFA Europa League
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Ararat-Armenia face AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. Recent form: Ararat-Armenia have 4 wins from their last 5, while AZ Alkmaar have 1 win from their last 5. The bookmaker market makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 63%, implying a 1.0-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 3.9% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 3.9% |
| 2 | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is AZ Alkmaar with a -0.25 handicap at odds 1.32, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (59%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Ararat-Armenia come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Ararat. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Jagiellonia.
- WBKMA 0-1 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
- LJagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Europa League
- DArarat-Armenia 1-1 AlashkertPremier League
- WArarat 0-4 Ararat-ArmeniaFriendlies Clubs
- WShirak 1-3 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Hapoel Beer Sheva. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Feyenoord.
- DCambuur 2-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- WAZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League
- LFeyenoord 2-0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
- LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. AyongoOff the roster
- Z. BanjaquiInjury
- J. HornkampInjury
- S. ResinkKnee Injury
- K. SmitInjury
- H. VerhulstOff the roster
- J. ClasieKnock
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Ararat-Armenia at 44% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 28%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia Win | 44% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 28% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ararat-Armenia or Draw at 2.50 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia or Draw | 70% | 37% | @ 2.50 |
| AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 55% | 85% | @ 1.12 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 59% | @ 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 41% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ararat-Armenia or AZ Alkmaar is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia +2 | 92% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.75 | 90% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.5 | 88% | 58% | @ 1.65 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.25 | 84% | 52% | @ 1.85 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1 | 79% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.75 | 75% | 39% | @ 2.42 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.5 | 70% | 35% | @ 2.71 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.25 | 64% | 28% | @ 3.42 |
| Ararat-Armenia 0 | 58% | 19% | @ 4.92 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.5 | 55% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.25 | 51% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.25 | 49% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.5 | 45% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| AZ Alkmaar 0 | 42% | 81% | 1.19 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | 36% | 72% | 1.32 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.5 | 30% | 65% | 1.47 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.75 | 25% | 61% | 1.57 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1 | 21% | 55% | 1.73 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.25 | 16% | 48% | 2.02 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | 12% | 42% | 2.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.75 | 10% | 36% | 2.62 |
| AZ Alkmaar -2 | 8% | 29% | 3.33 |
📈 How the market moved
🔬 How this pick was selected
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 57% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 39% |
The table above shows each model’s view of the match winner. This pick is on a different market (goals or handicap) and was selected on the bookmaker market’s probability, not on our model.
The bookmaker market puts this selection at 72% with the margin removed; the odds of 1.32 imply 76% including the margin. In our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we select on the market’s probability.
Expected goals: 1.47 for the home side, 1.14 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our main pick is AZ Alkmaar with a -0.25 handicap at odds 1.32, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.0-2.2 scoreline for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar.
What is the predicted score for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.99 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.17 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar play?
Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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