Sturm Graz

Thu 22 Oct16:45Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sturm Graz vs Marseille in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sturm Graz face Marseille in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.0-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sturm Graz vs Marseille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.50

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.01 – 1.02 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.1%	13.4%	6.8%	2.3%	0.6%
1	13.3%	13.5%	6.9%	2.3%	0.6%
2	6.7%	6.8%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
3	2.3%	2.3%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-1

Sturm Graz winDrawMarseille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sturm Graz vs Marseille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Marseille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points no (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Sturm Graz 30%Draw 33%Marseille 37%

30%33%37%

37%

Marseille Win

67%

Under 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to Grazer AK. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Bournemouth.

WSturm Graz 6-1 Grazer AKBundesliga
LBournemouth 3-0 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
WAustria Vienna 0-2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
WSturm Graz 3-1 Floridsdorfer ACFriendlies Clubs
LRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm GrazBundesliga

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at Angers. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Olympiakos Piraeus.

WAngers 2-5 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League
WEstac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sturm Graz

N. GeyrhoferOff the roster
L. GrgicKnee Injury
S. JattaShoulder Injury
O. KiteishviliCalf Injury
G. MamageishviliInjury
F. RozgaMuscle Injury
E. SogloMuscle Injury
N. WeiperInjury

Marseille

D. CorneliusHip Injury
P. HojbjergMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sturm Graz at 30% to win and Marseille at 37%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille Win	37%	47%	@ 2.00
Draw	33%	27%	@ 3.50
Sturm Graz Win	30%	26%	@ 3.70

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Marseille or Draw at 1.28 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille or Draw	66%	74%	@ 1.28
Sturm Graz or Draw	60%	53%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	85%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 2.5	67%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 1.5	60%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 1.5	40%	22%	@ 4.33
Over 2.5	33%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	15%	36%	@ 2.62

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	61%	41%	@ 2.25
BTTS Yes	39%	59%	@ 1.57

📈 How the market moved

Sturm Graz 26%Draw 26%Marseille 47%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	42%
Dixon-Coles	Away	43%
GradientBoosting	Away	37%

Two of our three models agree on the match result; the third sees it differently.

Expected goals: 1.23 for the home side, 1.36 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (19%), 0-0 (16%), 1-0 (14%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.

Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.0 scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Marseille.

What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.01 for Sturm Graz and 1.02 for Marseille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sturm Graz and Marseille play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.