Thu 22 Oct16:45Upcoming

Hapoel Beer Sheva

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Union St. Gilloise face Hapoel Beer Sheva in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.67

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.40 – 0.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	9.1%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
1	13.0%	12.7%	6.2%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.1%	8.9%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%
3	4.2%	4.1%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Union St. Gilloise winDrawHapoel Beer Sheva win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.67, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Union St. Gilloise 48%Draw 26%Hapoel Beer Sheva 26%

48%26%26%

48%

Union St. Gilloise Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Nijlen. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WUnion St. Gilloise 3-0 NijlenCup
DUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League
DUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
WAntwerp 0-2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WPlzen 0-3 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Ironi Tiberias. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at AZ Alkmaar.

LAZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League
WIroni Tiberias 0-2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
WHapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
DHapoel Beer Sheva 0-0 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League
LHapoel Beer Sheva 1-4 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Union St. Gilloise

A. Ait El HadjOff the roster
I. HurteventKnock
O. KricfalusiKnock
K. Mac AllisterKnee Injury
I. PavlicOff the roster
K. RodriguezMuscle Injury
R. SchoofsKnock
R. SykesShoulder Injury

Hapoel Beer Sheva

D. BitonHeart Problems
Y. StoyanovOff the roster
Lucas VenturaMuscle Injury
I. NachmiasInjury
I. RotmanKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Union St. Gilloise at 48% to win and Hapoel Beer Sheva at 26%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise Win	48%	70%	@ 1.33
Hapoel Beer Sheva Win	26%	12%	@ 7.50
Draw	26%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union St. Gilloise or Draw at 1.10 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Union St. Gilloise or Draw	74%	88%	@ 1.10
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Draw	52%	30%	@ 3.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 1.5	69%	83%	@ 1.14
Under 2.5	58%	36%	@ 2.62
Over 2.5	42%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 1.5	31%	17%	@ 5.50
Over 3.5	22%	43%	@ 2.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS Yes	47%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 How the market moved

Union St. Gilloise 71%Draw 17%Hapoel Beer Sheva 12%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	47%
GradientBoosting	Home	48%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.55 for the home side, 1.08 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.67, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 57%.

Who is the favourite for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?

Our model makes an Union St. Gilloise win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva.

What is the predicted score for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.40 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.98 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.