Omonia Nicosia

Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Omonia Nicosia face Benfica in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Omonia Nicosia have 4 wins from their last 5, while Benfica have 4 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.1-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

86%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.10 – 0.89 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.7%	12.2%	5.4%	1.6%	0.4%
1	15.0%	13.4%	6.0%	1.8%	0.4%
2	8.3%	7.4%	3.3%	1.0%	0.2%
3	3.0%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.8%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Omonia Nicosia winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points no (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Omonia Nicosia 31%Draw 30%Benfica 39%

31%30%39%

39%

Benfica Win

68%

Under 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Celje. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DOmonia Nicosia 2-2 Olympiakos1. Division
WCelje 0-3 Omonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League
WKarmiotissa 0-3 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
WOmonia Nicosia 4-1 Krasava Ypsonas1. Division
WOmonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta VigoUEFA Europa League

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Celtic. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

WBenfica 4-1 CelticUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 2-0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Omonia Nicosia

B. AkintolaMuscle Injury
C. EitingKnee Injury
F. KitsosKnee Injury

Benfica

D. BanjaquiMuscle Injury
E. BarrenecheaInjury
J. KaminskiMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Omonia Nicosia at 31% to win and Benfica at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	39%	69%	@ 1.36
Omonia Nicosia Win	31%	12%	@ 7.50
Draw	30%	19%	@ 5.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.08 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	67%	88%	@ 1.08
Omonia Nicosia or Draw	59%	31%	@ 3.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 68% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	86%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	68%	40%	@ 2.38
Over 1.5	59%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 1.5	41%	19%	@ 5.00
Over 2.5	32%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	14%	40%	@ 2.38

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	61%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	39%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Omonia Nicosia 12%Draw 18%Benfica 70%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	40%
GradientBoosting	Away	42%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.21 for the home side, 1.39 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 60%.

Who is the favourite for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.1-0.9 scoreline for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.10 for Omonia Nicosia and 0.89 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Omonia Nicosia and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.