Olympiakos Piraeus

Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

Sparta Praha

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Olympiakos Piraeus face Sparta Praha in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Olympiakos Piraeus win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 2.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.18 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	4.1%	2.4%	0.9%	0.3%
1	7.6%	8.9%	5.2%	2.0%	0.6%
2	8.3%	9.8%	5.7%	2.2%	0.7%
3	6.1%	7.1%	4.1%	1.6%	0.5%
4	3.3%	3.9%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Olympiakos Piraeus winDrawSparta Praha win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Olympiakos Piraeus win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Olympiakos Piraeus 56%Draw 23%Sparta Praha 21%

56%23%21%

56%

Olympiakos Piraeus Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Olympiakos Piraeus

Olympiakos Piraeus come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 1. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Panetolikos. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WPanetolikos 0-2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
WMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League
WOlympiakos Piraeus 1-0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
WLevadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
WOlympiakos Piraeus 2-1 JagielloniaUEFA Europa League

Sparta Praha

Sparta Praha come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Sigma Olomouc.

DBaník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
DSparta Praha 1-1 LillestromUEFA Europa League
WSparta Praha 2-0 PardubiceCzech Liga
WSparta Praha 5-3 Vysočina JihlavaFriendlies Clubs
WSigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Olympiakos Piraeus

L. BaileyInjury
ClaytonOff the roster
A. El KaabiBroken Leg
K. FortounisMuscle Injury
M. MouandilmadjiOff the roster
B. PopovicOff the roster
J. RocaOff the roster
L. ScipioniOff the roster

Sparta Praha

M. AndersenKnee Injury
E. CobbautGroin Injury
A. KarabecAnkle Injury
O. PenxaKnee Injury
M. RynesAnkle Injury
E. UchennaGroin Injury
L. Mbe SohHealth problems

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Olympiakos Piraeus at 56% to win and Sparta Praha at 21%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes an Olympiakos Piraeus win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Olympiakos Piraeus Win	56%	62%	@ 1.50
Draw	23%	22%	@ 4.33
Sparta Praha Win	21%	16%	@ 5.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Olympiakos Piraeus or Draw at 1.14 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Olympiakos Piraeus or Draw	80%	84%	@ 1.14
Sparta Praha or Draw	44%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	65%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 3.5	57%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 3.5	43%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 2.5	35%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	15%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS No	41%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Olympiakos Piraeus 62%Draw 21%Sparta Praha 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	67%
Dixon-Coles	Home	53%
GradientBoosting	Home	54%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.75 for the home side, 0.96 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha?

Our model makes an Olympiakos Piraeus win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha.

What is the predicted score for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.18 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.17 for Sparta Praha. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.