Lillestrom

Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lillestrom face Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.8-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.53

64%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.79 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.8%	6.0%	3.7%	1.6%	0.5%
1	8.6%	10.7%	6.7%	2.8%	0.9%
2	7.7%	9.6%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
3	4.6%	5.7%	3.6%	1.5%	0.5%
4	2.0%	2.6%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Lillestrom winDrawReal Sociedad win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 64% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Real Sociedad win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Lillestrom 34%Draw 28%Real Sociedad 37%

34%28%37%

37%

Real Sociedad Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Lillestrom

Lillestrom come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Bærum. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Viking.

WSandefjord 0-2 LillestromEliteserien
DSparta Praha 1-1 LillestromUEFA Europa League
DLillestrom 2-2 MoldeEliteserien
WBærum 1-5 LillestromNM Cupen
LViking 3-0 LillestromEliteserien

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 9. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at Málaga. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Bournemouth.

WMálaga 2-5 Real SociedadLa Liga
DUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League
WReal Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
WValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
LReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lillestrom

C. JebaraInjury
E. B. GarnasKnee Injury

Real Sociedad

J. AramburuLeg Injury
A. OdriozolaKnee Injury
L. BeitiaAnkle Injury
Y. HerreraCalf Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lillestrom at 34% to win and Real Sociedad at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Real Sociedad Win	37%	65%	@ 1.45
Lillestrom Win	34%	15%	@ 6.25
Draw	28%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Sociedad or Draw at 1.14 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Real Sociedad or Draw	65%	85%	@ 1.14
Lillestrom or Draw	62%	35%	@ 2.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	64%	62%	@ 1.53
Over 2.5	59%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 2.5	41%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 3.5	36%	38%	@ 2.50
Under 1.5	19%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	41%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Lillestrom 16%Draw 20%Real Sociedad 64%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	50%
GradientBoosting	Away	41%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.27 for the home side, 1.33 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 64% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.

Who is the favourite for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

Our model makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad.

What is the predicted score for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.79 for Lillestrom and 1.25 for Real Sociedad. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lillestrom and Real Sociedad play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.