Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Hoffenheim vs Lyon Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hoffenheim vs Lyon in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Hoffenheim face Lyon in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 1.4-2.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hoffenheim vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lyon or Draw @ 1.80

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.40 – 2.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.4%	5.5%	6.5%	5.1%	3.0%
1	3.3%	7.7%	9.1%	7.1%	4.2%
2	2.3%	5.4%	6.4%	5.0%	2.9%
3	1.1%	2.5%	3.0%	2.3%	1.4%
4	0.4%	0.9%	1.0%	0.8%	0.5%

Projected score: 1-2

Hoffenheim winDrawLyon win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Hoffenheim vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Lyon or Draw at odds 1.80, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Hoffenheim 23%Draw 22%Lyon 56%

23%22%56%

56%

Lyon Win

72%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Borussia Mönchengladbach. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Beşiktaş.

WBorussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 HoffenheimBundesliga
LHoffenheim 2-3 BeşiktaşUEFA Europa League
LHoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SVBundesliga
LSC Paderborn 07 3-1 HoffenheimBundesliga
LOFI 2-0 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Lens.

WLyon 2-1 NiceLigue 1
WLyon 3-2 Crystal PalaceUEFA Europa League
LLens 2-1 LyonLigue 1
WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Hoffenheim

N. De CatKnee Injury
L. EngelnsOff the roster
A. HajdariFoot Injury
P. WimmerThigh Injury

Lyon

L. OpendaLeg Injury
M. OuedraogoKnee Injury
N. TagliaficoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Hoffenheim at 23% to win and Lyon at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon Win	56%	28%	@ 3.40
Hoffenheim Win	23%	49%	@ 1.95
Draw	22%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.80 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon or Draw	78%	51%	@ 1.80
Hoffenheim or Draw	46%	72%	@ 1.33

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-2.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	89%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	72%	64%	@ 1.50
Over 3.5	52%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 3.5	48%	57%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	28%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	11%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	34%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Hoffenheim 49%Draw 23%Lyon 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	67%
Dixon-Coles	Away	52%
GradientBoosting	Away	53%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 0.98 for the home side, 1.71 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-3 (6%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hoffenheim vs Lyon?

Our model's pick is Lyon or Draw at odds 1.80, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 51%.

Who is the favourite for Hoffenheim vs Lyon?

Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.4 scoreline for Hoffenheim vs Lyon.

What is the predicted score for Hoffenheim vs Lyon?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.40 for Hoffenheim and 2.35 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Hoffenheim and Lyon play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.