Celje

Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

Red Bull Salzburg

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Celje face Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Celje win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.04 – 1.26 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	12.6%	8.0%	3.3%	1.1%
1	10.4%	13.1%	8.3%	3.5%	1.1%
2	5.4%	6.8%	4.3%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.9%	2.4%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Celje winDrawRed Bull Salzburg win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Celje win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Celje 38%Draw 33%Red Bull Salzburg 29%

38%33%29%

38%

Celje Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Celje

Celje come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 1 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Aluminij. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Omonia Nicosia.

DMaribor 0-0 Celje1. SNL
LCelje 0-3 Omonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League
WCelje 1-0 Aluminij1. SNL
DMura 0-0 Celje1. SNL
LBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League

Red Bull Salzburg

Red Bull Salzburg come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to SCR Altach. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to AC Milan.

WRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 SCR AltachBundesliga
LRed Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC MilanUEFA Europa League
DGrazer AK 0-0 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
LRed Bull Salzburg 1-2 FC BW LinzFriendlies Clubs
WRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm GrazBundesliga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Celje

J. PisekKnee Injury

Red Bull Salzburg

E. AguilarMuscle Injury
A. ChaseOff the roster
F. MatijasevicOff the roster
J. MoserOff the roster
J. OmoregieAchilles Tendon Injury
N. VeratschnigKnee Injury
K. KonateInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Celje at 38% to win and Red Bull Salzburg at 29%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Celje win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celje Win	38%	16%	@ 6.00
Draw	33%	22%	@ 4.20
Red Bull Salzburg Win	29%	62%	@ 1.53

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Celje or Draw at 2.38 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celje or Draw	67%	38%	@ 2.38
Red Bull Salzburg or Draw	59%	84%	@ 1.12

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 1.5	67%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 2.5	60%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 2.5	40%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 1.5	33%	19%	@ 5.00
Over 3.5	20%	40%	@ 2.38

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	46%	56%	@ 1.67

📈 How the market moved

Celje 16%Draw 22%Red Bull Salzburg 62%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	41%
GradientBoosting	Home	40%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.39 for the home side, 1.21 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 60%.

Who is the favourite for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?

Our model makes a Celje win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg.

What is the predicted score for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.04 for Celje and 1.26 for Red Bull Salzburg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Celje and Red Bull Salzburg play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.