Sat 24 Oct12:00Upcoming

⚽ La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Rayo Vallecano face Elche in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC. Recent form: Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins from their last 5, while Elche have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 1, Elche won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.60 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	7.2%	4.5%	1.9%	0.6%
1	9.3%	11.6%	7.2%	3.0%	0.9%
2	7.4%	9.3%	5.8%	2.4%	0.8%
3	3.9%	4.9%	3.1%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.6%	2.0%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Rayo Vallecano winDrawElche win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Rayo Vallecano 47%Draw 33%Elche 20%

47%33%20%

47%

Rayo Vallecano Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Rayo Vallecano and Elche. Wins shown from Rayo Vallecano’s perspective: Rayo Vallecano 1 · Elche 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-03	Rayo Vallecano	1 – 0	Elche	W
2025-12-21	Elche	4 – 0	Rayo Vallecano	L

📈 Recent form

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Espanyol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at Real Madrid.

DGetafe 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
DOsasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
WRayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
LReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
WRayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga

Elche

Elche come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Espanyol. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Real Madrid.

DVillarreal 0-0 ElcheLa Liga
DElche 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
WEspanyol 1-3 ElcheLa Liga
LElche 2-3 Real MadridLa Liga
DAthletic Club 1-1 ElcheLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Rayo Vallecano

A. BatallaBroken calfbone
P. CissSuspended (cards)
Luiz FelipeKnee Injury
R. NtekaBack Injury
A. RatiuMuscle Injury

Elche

M. AguadoAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Rayo Vallecano at 47% to win and Elche at 20%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano Win	47%	54%	@ 1.75
Draw	33%	26%	@ 3.70
Elche Win	20%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.18 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano or Draw	76%	80%	@ 1.18
Elche or Draw	49%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	68%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	54%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	46%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	32%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	22%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS No	43%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Rayo Vallecano 54%Draw 25%Elche 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche.

What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.25 for Elche. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Rayo Vallecano and Elche play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.