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⚽ La Liga

Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Valencia vs Villarreal in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Valencia face Villarreal in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Valencia have 1 win from their last 5, while Villarreal have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Villarreal won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.3-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Valencia vs Villarreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.28 – 1.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	9.2%	7.1%	3.6%	1.4%
1	7.6%	11.7%	9.0%	4.6%	1.8%
2	4.9%	7.5%	5.8%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.1%	3.2%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Valencia winDrawVillarreal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Villarreal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Valencia 32%Draw 27%Villarreal 41%

32%27%41%

41%

Villarreal Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Valencia and Villarreal. Wins shown from Valencia’s perspective: 2 drawn · Villarreal 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-22	Villarreal	2 – 1	Valencia	L
2025-10-25	Valencia	0 – 2	Villarreal	L
2025-02-15	Villarreal	1 – 1	Valencia	D
2024-08-31	Valencia	1 – 1	Villarreal	D
2024-03-17	Villarreal	1 – 0	Valencia	L

📈 Recent form

Valencia

Valencia come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Alavés. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Real Sociedad.

DValencia 0-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
DRacing Santander 2-2 ValenciaLa Liga
LValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
WAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga

Villarreal

Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Napoli. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at Liverpool.

LLiverpool 4-3 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
DVillarreal 0-0 ElcheLa Liga
WVillarreal 3-1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
LReal Madrid 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Valencia at 32% to win and Villarreal at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Villarreal Win	41%	44%	@ 2.15
Valencia Win	32%	29%	@ 3.30
Draw	27%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Villarreal or Draw at 1.33 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Villarreal or Draw	68%	71%	@ 1.33
Valencia or Draw	59%	56%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	69%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	54%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	46%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	31%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	23%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	44%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Valencia 29%Draw 26%Villarreal 44%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Villarreal?

Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline for Valencia vs Villarreal.

What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Villarreal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.28 for Valencia and 1.54 for Villarreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Valencia and Villarreal play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.