Sat 24 Oct21:30Upcoming

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vasco da Gama face Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 21:30 UTC. Recent form: Vasco da Gama have 3 wins from their last 5, while Corinthians have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Vasco da Gama won 1, Corinthians won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 73%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.42 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	8.8%	5.1%	1.9%	0.6%
1	10.9%	12.5%	7.2%	2.8%	0.8%
2	7.7%	8.9%	5.1%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.7%	4.2%	2.4%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.3%	1.5%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vasco da Gama winDrawCorinthians win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Vasco da Gama win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Vasco da Gama 41%Draw 34%Corinthians 25%

41%34%25%

41%

Vasco da Gama Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Vasco da Gama and Corinthians. Wins shown from Vasco da Gama’s perspective: Vasco da Gama 1 · Corinthians 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-26	Corinthians	1 – 0	Vasco da Gama	L
2024-11-24	Corinthians	3 – 1	Vasco da Gama	L
2024-07-10	Vasco da Gama	2 – 0	Corinthians	W
2023-11-29	Vasco da Gama	2 – 4	Corinthians	L
2023-07-29	Corinthians	3 – 1	Vasco da Gama	L

📈 Recent form

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at São Paulo.

LSão Paulo 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
WBoca Juniors 0-1 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
DVasco da Gama 0-0 RemoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Palmeiras.

DCorinthians 1-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
LPalmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
LInternacional 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
LCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LCorinthians 0-1 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vasco da Gama at 41% to win and Corinthians at 25%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vasco da Gama Win	41%	56%	@ 1.65
Draw	34%	25%	@ 3.70
Corinthians Win	25%	19%	@ 5.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.17 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vasco da Gama or Draw	71%	81%	@ 1.17
Corinthians or Draw	55%	44%	@ 2.20

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	73%	73%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	53%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	47%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	27%	27%	@ 3.50
Over 3.5	26%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	48%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 How the market moved

Vasco da Gama 57%Draw 25%Corinthians 19%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

Our model makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians.

What is the predicted score for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Vasco da Gama and 1.15 for Corinthians. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vasco da Gama and Corinthians play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.