Sat 24 Oct22:30Upcoming

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Chapecoense vs Fluminense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chapecoense vs Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Chapecoense face Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Chapecoense have no wins from their last 5, while Fluminense have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.2-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chapecoense vs Fluminense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

86%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.24 – 2.19 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	7.1%	7.8%	5.7%	3.1%
1	4.0%	8.8%	9.6%	7.0%	3.8%
2	2.5%	5.5%	6.0%	4.4%	2.4%
3	1.0%	2.3%	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%
4	0.3%	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-2

Chapecoense winDrawFluminense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Fluminense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fluminense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Chapecoense 17%Draw 19%Fluminense 64%

17%19%64%

64%

Fluminense Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Chapecoense

Chapecoense come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Botafogo.

LBotafogo 1-0 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LChapecoense 1-4 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LVitória 4-0 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
DAtletico Nacional 1-1 ChapecoenseFriendlies Clubs
DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Coritiba. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santos.

LFluminense 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 1-0 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WFluminense 4-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Chapecoense at 17% to win and Fluminense at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense Win	64%	50%	@ 1.85
Draw	19%	27%	@ 3.40
Chapecoense Win	17%	23%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fluminense or Draw at 1.22 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense or Draw	84%	77%	@ 1.22
Chapecoense or Draw	37%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	67%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 3.5	55%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 3.5	45%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 2.5	33%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	14%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	37%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 How the market moved

Chapecoense 23%Draw 27%Fluminense 50%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline for Chapecoense vs Fluminense.

What is the predicted score for Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Chapecoense and 2.19 for Fluminense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Chapecoense and Fluminense play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.