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⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Monaco vs SC Freiburg Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monaco vs SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Monaco face SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Monaco have 3 wins from their last 3, while SC Freiburg have 3 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monaco vs SC Freiburg with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.40

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.68 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	6.8%	4.0%	1.5%	0.5%
1	9.7%	11.4%	6.7%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.2%	9.6%	5.6%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.6%	5.3%	3.1%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Monaco winDrawSC Freiburg win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Monaco vs SC Freiburg comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Monaco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Monaco 42%Draw 25%SC Freiburg 33%

42%25%33%

42%

Monaco Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Monaco

Monaco come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at CSKA Sofia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Lorient.

LLorient 1-0 MonacoLigue 1
WCSKA Sofia 1-2 MonacoUEFA Europa Conference
DMonaco 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DStrasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to FC Luzern. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.

LBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 3-2 FK JablonecUEFA Europa Conference
WSC Freiburg 2-1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
WSC Freiburg 4-2 FC LuzernFriendlies Clubs
DEintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Monaco at 42% to win and SC Freiburg at 33%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco Win	42%	44%	@ 2.15
SC Freiburg Win	33%	30%	@ 3.10
Draw	25%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Monaco or Draw at 1.36 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco or Draw	67%	70%	@ 1.36
SC Freiburg or Draw	59%	56%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	77%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	68%	66%	@ 1.40
Over 2.5	54%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	46%	45%	@ 2.08
Over 3.5	32%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	22%	23%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	44%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Monaco 44%Draw 26%SC Freiburg 30%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
GradientBoosting	Home	39%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.39 for the home side, 1.21 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Monaco vs SC Freiburg?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Monaco vs SC Freiburg?

Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline for Monaco vs SC Freiburg.

What is the predicted score for Monaco vs SC Freiburg?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Monaco and 1.17 for SC Freiburg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Monaco and SC Freiburg play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.