⚽ Major League Soccer
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.
FC Dallas face San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: FC Dallas have 2 wins from their last 5, while San Jose Earthquakes have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, FC Dallas won 2, San Jose Earthquakes won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Dallas win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 2.0-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FC Dallas win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (68%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes. Wins shown from FC Dallas’s perspective: FC Dallas 2 · 2 drawn · San Jose Earthquakes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2 – 3 | FC Dallas | W |
| 2024-10-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | 3 – 2 | FC Dallas | L |
| 2024-02-25 | FC Dallas | 2 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | W |
| 2023-10-08 | FC Dallas | 1 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | D |
| 2023-05-28 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 1 | FC Dallas | D |
📈 Recent form
FC Dallas come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Seattle Sounders. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Charlotte.
- DHouston Dynamo 2-2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- WFC Dallas 1-0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- LCharlotte 3-2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- WFC Dallas 1-0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- DFC Dallas 0-0 AustinMajor League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 1 win and 4 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Portland Timbers. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DReal Salt Lake 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DColorado Rapids 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. SarverSuspended (red card)
- L. FarringtonLower-Body Injury
- Geovane JesusKnee Injury
- A. A. Julio SantosLower-Body Injury
- KaickPersonal Reasons
- N. AdimabuaHernia
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- P. JuddSuspended (cards)
- J. A. Gonzalez MendozaInjury
- D. JohnsonLower-Body Injury
- B. KikanovicLower-Body Injury
- J. SkahanLower-Body Injury
- N. TsakirisUpper-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices FC Dallas at 42% to win and San Jose Earthquakes at 27%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a FC Dallas win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas Win | 42% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 27% | 22% | @ 4.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Dallas or Draw at 1.22 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas or Draw | 71% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 55% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 | 52% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 32% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 65%.
Who is the favourite for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model makes a FC Dallas win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes.
What is the predicted score for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 2.00 for FC Dallas and 1.58 for San Jose Earthquakes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes play?
Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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