Sun 25 Oct11:15Upcoming

⚽ Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Fortuna Sittard face Excelsior in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:15 UTC. Recent form: Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins from their last 5, while Excelsior have no wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 2, Excelsior won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.8-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Fortuna Sittard or Draw @ 1.44

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.79 – 1.63 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	5.3%	4.3%	2.4%	1.0%
1	5.9%	9.5%	7.8%	4.2%	1.7%
2	5.2%	8.5%	7.0%	3.8%	1.5%
3	3.1%	5.1%	4.2%	2.3%	0.9%
4	1.4%	2.3%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Fortuna Sittard winDrawExcelsior win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (68%).

📊 Key numbers

Fortuna Sittard 43%Draw 30%Excelsior 27%

43%30%27%

43%

Fortuna Sittard Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior. Wins shown from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective: Fortuna Sittard 2 · 1 drawn · Excelsior 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-20	Fortuna Sittard	2 – 1	Excelsior	W
2025-10-19	Excelsior	1 – 0	Fortuna Sittard	L
2024-03-03	Fortuna Sittard	5 – 2	Excelsior	W
2023-08-26	Excelsior	2 – 2	Fortuna Sittard	D

📈 Recent form

Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Genk. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-5 at home to Ajax.

DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
DFortuna Sittard 1-1 TwenteEredivisie
WGenk 1-2 Fortuna SittardFriendlies Clubs
WWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Heerenveen.

LHeerenveen 4-0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-5 GroningenEredivisie
DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fortuna Sittard at 43% to win and Excelsior at 27%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fortuna Sittard Win	43%	40%	@ 2.38
Draw	30%	26%	@ 3.70
Excelsior Win	27%	34%	@ 2.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at 1.44 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fortuna Sittard or Draw	70%	66%	@ 1.44
Excelsior or Draw	55%	60%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	66%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 3.5	55%	61%	@ 1.53
Over 3.5	45%	39%	@ 2.38
Under 2.5	34%	40%	@ 2.35
Under 1.5	14%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	68%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	32%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Fortuna Sittard 40%Draw 26%Excelsior 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

Our model's pick is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

Our model makes a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior.

What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.79 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.63 for Excelsior. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.