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⚽ Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

NEC Nijmegen face Groningen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: NEC Nijmegen have no wins from their last 5, while Groningen have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, NEC Nijmegen won 2, Groningen won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 2.0-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

NEC Nijmegen or Draw @ 1.44

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.01 – 1.51 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.0%	4.5%	3.4%	1.7%	0.6%
1	5.9%	9.0%	6.8%	3.4%	1.3%
2	6.0%	9.0%	6.8%	3.4%	1.3%
3	4.0%	6.0%	4.6%	2.3%	0.9%
4	2.0%	3.0%	2.3%	1.2%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

NEC Nijmegen winDrawGroningen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is NEC Nijmegen or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (67%).

📊 Key numbers

NEC Nijmegen 50%Draw 27%Groningen 23%

50%27%23%

50%

NEC Nijmegen Win

68%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen. Wins shown from NEC Nijmegen’s perspective: NEC Nijmegen 2 · Groningen 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Groningen	2 – 1	NEC Nijmegen	L
2025-11-09	NEC Nijmegen	2 – 0	Groningen	W
2025-02-08	Groningen	2 – 1	NEC Nijmegen	L
2024-11-03	NEC Nijmegen	6 – 0	Groningen	W

📈 Recent form

NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen come into this game with no wins and 4 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 4. Their only defeat in that run was 0-5 at Juventus.

DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
DNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski SofiaUEFA Europa League
DAjax 1-1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
DNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
LJuventus 5-0 NEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League

Groningen

Groningen come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Excelsior. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-5 at home to Ajax.

LGroningen 2-5 AjaxEredivisie
WExcelsior 1-5 GroningenEredivisie
WGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
DGo Ahead Eagles 1-1 GroningenEredivisie
DGroningen 2-2 TwenteEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices NEC Nijmegen at 50% to win and Groningen at 23%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen Win	50%	41%	@ 2.30
Draw	27%	25%	@ 3.80
Groningen Win	23%	34%	@ 2.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is NEC Nijmegen or Draw at 1.44 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	76%	66%	@ 1.44
Groningen or Draw	49%	59%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	87%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	68%	65%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	53%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	47%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	32%	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	13%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	67%	66%	@ 1.40
BTTS No	33%	34%	@ 2.75

📈 How the market moved

NEC Nijmegen 41%Draw 24%Groningen 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?

Our model's pick is NEC Nijmegen or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?

Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.5 scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen.

What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.01 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.51 for Groningen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do NEC Nijmegen and Groningen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.