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⚽ Ligue 1

Monaco vs Lille Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monaco vs Lille in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Monaco face Lille in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Monaco have 2 wins from their last 5, while Lille have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Monaco won 1, Lille won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monaco vs Lille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.43 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	8.6%	5.4%	2.2%	0.7%
1	9.8%	12.3%	7.7%	3.2%	1.0%
2	7.0%	8.8%	5.5%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.3%	4.2%	2.6%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.2%	1.5%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Monaco winDrawLille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Monaco vs Lille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Monaco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Monaco 40%Draw 24%Lille 36%

40%24%36%

40%

Monaco Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Monaco and Lille. Wins shown from Monaco’s perspective: Monaco 1 · 1 drawn · Lille 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Monaco	0 – 1	Lille	L
2025-08-24	Lille	1 – 0	Monaco	L
2025-02-22	Lille	2 – 1	Monaco	L
2024-10-18	Monaco	0 – 0	Lille	D
2024-04-24	Monaco	1 – 0	Lille	W

📈 Recent form

Monaco

Monaco come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at CSKA Sofia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Lorient.

LLorient 1-0 MonacoLigue 1
WCSKA Sofia 1-2 MonacoUEFA Europa Conference
DMonaco 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DStrasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1

Lille

Lille come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Arsenal.

DLille 1-1 BrestLigue 1
LArsenal 3-0 LilleUEFA Champions League
WLille 1-0 Le HavreLigue 1
WLille 2-1 Zulte WaregemFriendlies Clubs
LNice 2-1 LilleLigue 1

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Monaco at 40% to win and Lille at 36%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco Win	40%	45%	@ 2.10
Lille Win	36%	27%	@ 3.50
Draw	24%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Monaco or Draw at 1.36 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco or Draw	65%	73%	@ 1.36
Lille or Draw	62%	55%	@ 1.70

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	72%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	50%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	50%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	28%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	25%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	46%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Monaco 45%Draw 29%Lille 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Monaco vs Lille?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Lille?

Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Monaco vs Lille.

What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Lille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.43 for Monaco and 1.25 for Lille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Monaco and Lille play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.