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⚽ Bundesliga

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Hoffenheim face Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Hoffenheim have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bayer Leverkusen have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Hoffenheim won 2, Bayer Leverkusen won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 1.6-2.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Bayer Leverkusen or Draw @ 1.44

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 2.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.7%	4.3%	5.3%	4.3%	2.7%
1	2.8%	6.8%	8.4%	6.9%	4.2%
2	2.2%	5.4%	6.7%	5.5%	3.4%
3	1.2%	2.9%	3.5%	2.9%	1.8%
4	0.5%	1.1%	1.4%	1.2%	0.7%

Projected score: 1-2

Hoffenheim winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (77%), both teams to score points yes (73%).

📊 Key numbers

Hoffenheim 27%Draw 17%Bayer Leverkusen 56%

27%17%56%

56%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

77%

Over 2.5 goals

73%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen. Wins shown from Hoffenheim’s perspective: Hoffenheim 2 · Bayer Leverkusen 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-17	Hoffenheim	1 – 0	Bayer Leverkusen	W
2025-08-23	Bayer Leverkusen	1 – 2	Hoffenheim	W
2025-02-02	Bayer Leverkusen	3 – 1	Hoffenheim	L
2024-09-14	Hoffenheim	1 – 4	Bayer Leverkusen	L
2024-03-30	Bayer Leverkusen	2 – 1	Hoffenheim	L

📈 Recent form

Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Borussia Mönchengladbach. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Beşiktaş.

WBorussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 HoffenheimBundesliga
LHoffenheim 2-3 BeşiktaşUEFA Europa League
LHoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SVBundesliga
LSC Paderborn 07 3-1 HoffenheimBundesliga
LOFI 2-0 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Lech Poznan. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WLech Poznan 0-4 Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Europa League
WFSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Hoffenheim at 27% to win and Bayer Leverkusen at 56%, with the draw at 17%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen Win	56%	42%	@ 2.30
Hoffenheim Win	27%	33%	@ 2.88
Draw	17%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.44 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	77%	67%	@ 1.44
Hoffenheim or Draw	47%	58%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-2.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 77% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	91%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	77%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 3.5	58%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 3.5	42%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	23%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	9%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 73%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	73%	69%	@ 1.36
BTTS No	27%	31%	@ 3.00

📈 How the market moved

Hoffenheim 34%Draw 25%Bayer Leverkusen 42%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model's pick is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.

Who is the favourite for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 1.6-2.5 scoreline for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen.

What is the predicted score for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.59 for Hoffenheim and 2.46 for Bayer Leverkusen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.