Sun 25 Oct16:15Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Marseille vs Le Havre Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Marseille vs Le Havre in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Marseille face Le Havre in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC. Recent form: Marseille have 2 wins from their last 5, while Le Havre have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 59%, projecting a 2.0-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Marseille vs Le Havre with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

66%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.96 – 1.00 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	5.2%	2.6%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.2%	10.2%	5.1%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.0%	10.0%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	6.5%	6.5%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%
4	3.2%	3.2%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Marseille winDrawLe Havre win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Marseille vs Le Havre comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 66% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Marseille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 59%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Marseille 59%Draw 25%Le Havre 16%

59%25%16%

59%

Marseille Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Marseille and Le Havre. Wins shown from Marseille’s perspective: Marseille 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Le Havre	0 – 1	Marseille	W
2025-10-18	Marseille	6 – 2	Le Havre	W
2025-05-10	Le Havre	1 – 3	Marseille	W
2025-01-05	Marseille	5 – 1	Le Havre	W
2024-05-19	Le Havre	1 – 2	Marseille	W

📈 Recent form

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at Angers. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Olympiakos Piraeus.

WAngers 2-5 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League
WEstac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League

Le Havre

Le Havre come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Auxerre.

LLe Havre 1-3 AuxerreLigue 1
LLille 1-0 Le HavreLigue 1
LToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLe Havre 0-0 AngersLigue 1
LLe Havre 1-2 BrestLigue 1

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Marseille at 59% to win and Le Havre at 16%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille Win	59%	61%	@ 1.57
Draw	25%	23%	@ 4.20
Le Havre Win	16%	17%	@ 5.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Marseille or Draw at 1.14 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille or Draw	83%	83%	@ 1.14
Le Havre or Draw	39%	39%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	66%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	57%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	43%	40%	@ 2.38
Over 3.5	34%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	20%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	46%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Marseille 61%Draw 21%Le Havre 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marseille vs Le Havre?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 66% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 60%.

Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Le Havre?

Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 59%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.0 scoreline for Marseille vs Le Havre.

What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Le Havre?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.96 for Marseille and 1.00 for Le Havre. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Marseille and Le Havre play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.