Sun 25 Oct19:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Paris Saint-Germain face Lyon in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Paris Saint-Germain have 4 wins from their last 5, while Lyon have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Paris Saint-Germain won 4, Lyon won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 59%, projecting a 2.0-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.36

62%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.98 – 1.23 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.0%	5.0%	3.1%	1.3%	0.4%
1	8.0%	9.8%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.7%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
3	5.2%	6.4%	3.9%	1.6%	0.5%
4	2.6%	3.2%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Paris Saint-Germain winDrawLyon win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 62% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 59%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Paris Saint-Germain 59%Draw 26%Lyon 15%

59%26%15%

59%

Paris Saint-Germain Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Paris Saint-Germain and Lyon. Wins shown from Paris Saint-Germain’s perspective: Paris Saint-Germain 4 · Lyon 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-19	Paris Saint-Germain	1 – 2	Lyon	L
2025-11-09	Lyon	2 – 3	Paris Saint-Germain	W
2025-02-23	Lyon	2 – 3	Paris Saint-Germain	W
2024-12-15	Paris Saint-Germain	3 – 1	Lyon	W
2024-04-21	Paris Saint-Germain	4 – 1	Lyon	W

📈 Recent form

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Barcelona. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WParis Saint-Germain 4-2 BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
WStrasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
WManchester City 2-4 Paris Saint-GermainUEFA Champions League
WParis Saint-Germain 3-1 Le MansLigue 1
WMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Lens.

WLyon 2-1 NiceLigue 1
WLyon 3-2 Crystal PalaceUEFA Europa League
LLens 2-1 LyonLigue 1
WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Paris Saint-Germain at 59% to win and Lyon at 15%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Paris Saint-Germain Win	59%	67%	@ 1.42
Draw	26%	19%	@ 5.00
Lyon Win	15%	14%	@ 7.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.12 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw	83%	86%	@ 1.12
Lyon or Draw	39%	33%	@ 2.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	62%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	60%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	40%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	38%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	17%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	39%	39%	@ 2.38

📈 How the market moved

Paris Saint-Germain 67%Draw 18%Lyon 14%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 62% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?

Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 59%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon.

What is the predicted score for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.98 for Paris Saint-Germain and 1.23 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Paris Saint-Germain and Lyon play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.