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⚽ Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Nacional Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Nacional in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 01 November 2026, 15:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Arouca face Nacional in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 01 November 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: Arouca have 2 wins from their last 5, while Nacional have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Arouca won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Nacional with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.60 – 1.07 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	7.4%	4.0%	1.4%	0.4%
1	11.1%	11.9%	6.3%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.9%	9.5%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.7%	5.1%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Arouca winDrawNacional win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Arouca vs Nacional comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Arouca 50%Draw 29%Nacional 21%

50%29%21%

50%

Arouca Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Arouca and Nacional. Wins shown from Arouca’s perspective: Arouca 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-21	Arouca	3 – 0	Nacional	W
2025-09-20	Nacional	1 – 2	Arouca	W
2025-02-01	Nacional	1 – 2	Arouca	W
2024-08-25	Arouca	1 – 0	Nacional	W

📈 Recent form

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Alverca. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.

WAlverca 0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
DCF Os Belenenses 3-3 AroucaTaça de Portugal
WArouca 1-0 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga

Nacional

Nacional come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to SC Braga. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Sanjoanense.

WNacional 1-0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
LSanjoanense 1-0 NacionalTaça de Portugal
LRio Ave 3-2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
LNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
LNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Arouca at 50% to win and Nacional at 21%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca Win	50%	51%	@ 1.83
Draw	29%	26%	@ 3.60
Nacional Win	21%	23%	@ 4.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.22 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca or Draw	76%	77%	@ 1.22
Nacional or Draw	48%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	72%	69%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	50%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 2.5	50%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 3.5	28%	31%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	25%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS No	48%	47%	@ 2.00

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arouca vs Nacional?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Nacional?

Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Arouca vs Nacional.

What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Nacional?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Arouca and 1.07 for Nacional. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Arouca and Nacional play?

Kick-off is Sunday 01 November 2026, 15:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.