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⚽ Premier League

Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Liverpool vs Arsenal in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 01 November 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Liverpool face Arsenal in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 01 November 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Liverpool have 3 wins from their last 5, while Arsenal have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 1, Arsenal won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.1-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Liverpool vs Arsenal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.15 – 1.49 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	10.6%	7.9%	3.9%	1.5%
1	8.2%	12.2%	9.1%	4.5%	1.7%
2	4.7%	7.0%	5.2%	2.6%	1.0%
3	1.8%	2.7%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Liverpool winDrawArsenal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Arsenal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arsenal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Liverpool 29%Draw 23%Arsenal 48%

29%23%48%

48%

Arsenal Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Liverpool and Arsenal. Wins shown from Liverpool’s perspective: Liverpool 1 · 3 drawn · Arsenal 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-08	Arsenal	0 – 0	Liverpool	D
2025-08-31	Liverpool	1 – 0	Arsenal	W
2025-05-11	Liverpool	2 – 2	Arsenal	D
2024-10-27	Arsenal	2 – 2	Liverpool	D
2024-02-04	Arsenal	3 – 1	Liverpool	L

📈 Recent form

Liverpool

Liverpool come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at Lask Linz. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at home to Manchester City.

WLiverpool 2-0 BrightonPremier League
WLiverpool 4-3 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
WBrentford 1-2 LiverpoolPremier League
WLask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
LLiverpool 0-3 Manchester CityPremier League

Arsenal

Arsenal come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Lille. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WArsenal 2-0 EvertonPremier League
DBayern Munich 2-2 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
WNottingham Forest 0-1 ArsenalPremier League
WArsenal 3-0 LilleUEFA Champions League
WArsenal 2-1 LeedsPremier League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Liverpool at 29% to win and Arsenal at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal Win	48%	41%	@ 2.25
Liverpool Win	29%	31%	@ 3.00
Draw	23%	27%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arsenal or Draw at 1.36 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal or Draw	72%	69%	@ 1.36
Liverpool or Draw	54%	59%	@ 1.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	73%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	51%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	49%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	27%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	26%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	47%	44%	@ 2.10

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline for Liverpool vs Arsenal.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Arsenal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Liverpool and 1.49 for Arsenal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Liverpool and Arsenal play?

Kick-off is Sunday 01 November 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.