vs
⚽ UEFA Europa League
Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Result: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia
Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, CSKA Sofia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.40, landed.
Qarabag face CSKA Sofia in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Qarabag won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Our prediction for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is CSKA Sofia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 83%. On the match result, the model rates a CSKA Sofia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (59%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is CSKA Sofia or Draw at odds 2.60 (+116.0% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Qarabag at 17% to win and CSKA Sofia at 53%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia Win | 53% | 7.10 | +276.7% |
| Draw | 30% | 4.20 | +26.1% |
| Qarabag Win | 17% | 1.45 | -75.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is CSKA Sofia or Draw at 2.60 (83% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia or Draw | 83% | 2.60 | +116.0% |
| Qarabag or Draw | 47% | 1.10 | -48.4% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.85 | +29.9% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 3.25 | +8.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 1.28 | +1.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | 1.33 | -11.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 21% | 3.55 | -25.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 1.90 | -43.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.95 | +14.9% |
| BTTS No | 41% | 1.73 | -29.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Qarabag or CSKA Sofia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia -0.75 | 64% | 7.00 | +344.6% |
| CSKA Sofia +0.25 | 40% | 3.32 | +31.2% |
| CSKA Sofia +0.5 | 33% | 2.53 | -15.8% |
| Qarabag +0.5 | 67% | 1.21 | -19.6% |
| Qarabag +0.75 | 71% | 1.10 | -21.5% |
| Qarabag +0.25 | 60% | 1.25 | -24.1% |
| CSKA Sofia +0.75 | 29% | 2.35 | -32.8% |
| Qarabag +0 | 54% | 1.22 | -33.8% |
| Qarabag -0.25 | 48% | 1.31 | -36.9% |
| Qarabag -0.5 | 42% | 1.49 | -37.8% |
| Qarabag -0.75 | 36% | 1.58 | -42.2% |
| Qarabag -1 | 31% | 1.79 | -44.2% |
| Qarabag -1.25 | 26% | 2.08 | -46.2% |
| Qarabag -2 | 14% | 3.73 | -46.5% |
| Qarabag -1.75 | 17% | 2.85 | -50.3% |
| CSKA Sofia +1 | 24% | 2.01 | -51.7% |
| Qarabag -1.5 | 21% | 2.33 | -52.0% |
| CSKA Sofia +1.25 | 19% | 1.73 | -66.5% |
| CSKA Sofia +1.5 | 15% | 1.57 | -76.9% |
| CSKA Sofia +1.75 | 12% | 1.40 | -82.7% |
| CSKA Sofia +2 | 10% | 1.25 | -87.5% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
Our main pick is CSKA Sofia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.40, with 83% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is CSKA Sofia or Draw at 2.60 (+116.0% value).
Who is the favourite for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Qarabag and 1.33 for CSKA Sofia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Qarabag and CSKA Sofia play?
Kick-off is Thursday 23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
More predictions
Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.