Qarabag

Thu 23 Jul0-0Finished

CSKA Sofia

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia

Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, CSKA Sofia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.40, landed.

Qarabag face CSKA Sofia in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.4-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

CSKA Sofia Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 1.40

83%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.43 – 1.49 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.4%	8.0%	6.0%	3.0%	1.1%
1	7.7%	11.5%	8.6%	4.3%	1.6%
2	5.5%	8.2%	6.1%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.6%	3.9%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%
4	0.9%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Qarabag winDrawCSKA Sofia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is CSKA Sofia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.40, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a CSKA Sofia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Qarabag 17%Draw 30%CSKA Sofia 53%

17%30%53%

53%

CSKA Sofia Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Qarabag and CSKA Sofia. Wins shown from Qarabag’s perspective: 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-30	CSKA Sofia	0 – 0	Qarabag	D
2026-07-23	Qarabag	0 – 0	CSKA Sofia	D

📈 Recent form

Qarabag

Qarabag come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Dynamo Kyiv. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Twente.

WQarabag 1-0 Safa BakuPremyer Liqa
DZira 1-1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
LQarabag 1-2 TwenteUEFA Europa Conference
WTwente 0-1 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference
WQarabag 2-0 Dynamo KyivUEFA Europa Conference

CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Arda Kardzhali. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to OFI.

WCSKA Sofia 4-1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
WLevski Sofia 2-4 CSKA SofiaSuper Cup
DSpartak Varna 1-1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
WCSKA Sofia 3-1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
LCSKA Sofia 0-2 OFIUEFA Europa League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Qarabag at 17% to win and CSKA Sofia at 53%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
CSKA Sofia Win	53%	15%	@ 6.25
Draw	30%	22%	@ 4.30
Qarabag Win	17%	64%	@ 1.46

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Qarabag or Draw at 1.09 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Qarabag or Draw	67%	85%	@ 1.09
CSKA Sofia or Draw	58%	36%	@ 2.48

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	73%	@ 1.27
Under 3.5	66%	70%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	56%	50%	@ 1.84
Under 2.5	44%	50%	@ 1.83
Over 3.5	34%	30%	@ 3.10
Under 1.5	21%	27%	@ 3.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	46%	@ 2.00
BTTS No	41%	54%	@ 1.68

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Qarabag or CSKA Sofia is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
CSKA Sofia +2	86%	75%	@ 1.25
CSKA Sofia +1.75	83%	67%	@ 1.40
CSKA Sofia +1.5	79%	60%	@ 1.57
CSKA Sofia +1.25	74%	55%	@ 1.73
Qarabag +0.75	71%	86%	1.10
CSKA Sofia +1	69%	47%	@ 2.01
Qarabag +0.5	67%	–	1.21
CSKA Sofia +0.75	64%	40%	@ 2.35
Qarabag +0.25	60%	–	1.25
CSKA Sofia +0.5	58%	37%	@ 2.53
Qarabag 0	54%	–	1.22
CSKA Sofia +0.25	52%	28%	@ 3.32
Qarabag -0.25	48%	72%	1.31
Qarabag -0.5	42%	63%	1.49
Qarabag -0.75	36%	60%	1.58
Qarabag -1	31%	53%	1.79
CSKA Sofia -0.75	29%	14%	@ 7.00
Qarabag -1.25	26%	45%	2.08
Qarabag -1.5	21%	40%	2.33
Qarabag -1.75	17%	33%	2.85
Qarabag -2	14%	25%	3.73

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?

Our model's main pick is CSKA Sofia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.40, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?

Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia.

What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.43 for Qarabag and 1.49 for CSKA Sofia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Qarabag and CSKA Sofia play?

Kick-off is Thursday 23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.