vs
⚽ Brazilian Série A
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 25 July 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Santos face Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Saturday 25 July 2026, 21:30 UTC. Recent form: Santos have 2 wins from their last 5, while Chapecoense-sc have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Santos won 3, Chapecoense-sc won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santos win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.8-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Chapecoense-sc Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.37, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Santos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.15 (+8.8% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Santos at 53% to win and Chapecoense-sc at 18%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc Win | 18% | 8.00 | +46.6% |
| Draw | 28% | 4.35 | +23.9% |
| Santos Win | 53% | 1.40 | -25.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chapecoense-sc or Draw at 2.85 (47% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc or Draw | 47% | 2.85 | +33.4% |
| Santos or Draw | 82% | 1.07 | -12.6% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 2.15 | +8.8% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 2.70 | +5.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 1.22 | -1.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 61% | 1.45 | -11.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 1.67 | -17.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | 4.20 | -18.1% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.85 | -1.1% |
| BTTS No | 47% | 1.85 | -13.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Santos or Chapecoense-sc is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc -0.5 | 48% | 6.80 | +224.3% |
| Chapecoense-sc -0.25 | 42% | 6.80 | +184.4% |
| Santos +0.5 | 76% | 1.10 | -16.6% |
| Santos +0.25 | 70% | 1.10 | -23.1% |
| Santos -0.5 | 52% | 1.42 | -25.6% |
| Santos -0.25 | 58% | 1.26 | -26.7% |
| Santos +0 | 64% | 1.12 | -28.3% |
| Santos -0.75 | 46% | 1.49 | -30.8% |
| Santos -1.25 | 35% | 1.90 | -34.0% |
| Santos -1 | 41% | 1.62 | -34.2% |
| Santos -2 | 21% | 3.12 | -34.8% |
| Santos -1.75 | 25% | 2.46 | -38.7% |
| Santos -1.5 | 29% | 2.11 | -39.0% |
| Chapecoense-sc +0.75 | 20% | 2.64 | -45.9% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1 | 17% | 2.30 | -61.5% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1.25 | 13% | 1.96 | -74.4% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1.5 | 9% | 1.70 | -84.2% |
| Chapecoense-sc +1.75 | 8% | 1.54 | -88.1% |
| Chapecoense-sc +2 | 6% | 1.37 | -91.7% |
How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 57% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 74% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 45% |
Our ensemble puts this selection at 79%. The model table above shows each model’s view of the match winner; this pick is on a different market (goals or handicap), where the ensemble combines all available models into the probability shown.
Our model estimates a 79% chance for this selection, while the odds of 1.37 imply 73%. That gap between our estimate and the market price is where the value lies.
Expected goals: 1.76 for the home side, 1.12 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our main pick is Chapecoense-sc Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.37, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.15 (+8.8% value).
Who is the favourite for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model makes a Santos win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.76 for Santos and 1.12 for Chapecoense-sc. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Santos and Chapecoense-sc play?
Kick-off is Saturday 25 July 2026, 21:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
More predictions
Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.