Sun 26 Jul0-1Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Cruzeiro vs Botafogo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 26 July 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo

Cruzeiro vs Botafogo finished 0-1. Botafogo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Botafogo Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.37, landed.

Cruzeiro face Botafogo in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 26 July 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 2, Botafogo won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Botafogo Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.37

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.29 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	9.2%	5.9%	2.6%	0.8%
1	9.6%	12.4%	8.0%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.5%	8.4%	5.4%	2.3%	0.8%
3	2.9%	3.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Cruzeiro winDrawBotafogo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Botafogo Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.37, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Cruzeiro 32%Draw 30%Botafogo 38%

32%30%38%

38%

Botafogo Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Cruzeiro and Botafogo. Wins shown from Cruzeiro’s perspective: Cruzeiro 2 · 2 drawn · Botafogo 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-26	Cruzeiro	0 – 1	Botafogo	L
2024-07-28	Botafogo	0 – 3	Cruzeiro	W
2024-04-14	Cruzeiro	3 – 2	Botafogo	W
2023-12-03	Botafogo	0 – 0	Cruzeiro	D
2023-08-06	Cruzeiro	0 – 0	Botafogo	D

📈 Recent form

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Santos.

WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
LVasco da Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Mirassol.

LMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Cruzeiro

CassioKnee Injury
Gabriel PecBroken Leg
GersonSuspended (cards)
Matheus PereiraSuspended (cards)

Botafogo

AllanMuscle Injury
Junior SantosFoot Injury
Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Cruzeiro at 32% to win and Botafogo at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo Win	38%	20%	@ 4.80
Cruzeiro Win	32%	56%	@ 1.68
Draw	30%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.18 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cruzeiro or Draw	68%	80%	@ 1.18
Botafogo or Draw	58%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	75%	@ 1.26
Under 3.5	73%	70%	@ 1.34
Under 2.5	51%	49%	@ 1.93
Over 2.5	49%	51%	@ 1.86
Over 3.5	27%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	26%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	52%	@ 1.78
BTTS No	47%	48%	@ 1.93

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Cruzeiro or Botafogo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo +2	85%	83%	1.15
Botafogo +1.75	82%	–	@ 1.25
Botafogo +1.5	79%	70%	@ 1.37
Botafogo +1.25	74%	66%	@ 1.45
Cruzeiro +0.75	72%	83%	1.14
Botafogo +1	68%	60%	@ 1.57
Cruzeiro +0.5	68%	78%	1.22
Botafogo +0.75	63%	52%	@ 1.85
Cruzeiro +0.25	61%	75%	1.26
Botafogo +0.5	58%	45%	@ 2.07
Cruzeiro 0	55%	71%	1.33
Botafogo +0.25	51%	38%	@ 2.47
Cruzeiro -0.25	49%	62%	1.54
Botafogo 0	45%	29%	@ 3.28
Cruzeiro -0.5	42%	55%	1.72
Botafogo -0.25	39%	25%	@ 3.85
Cruzeiro -0.75	37%	48%	2.02
Botafogo -0.5	33%	22%	@ 4.21
Cruzeiro -1	32%	40%	2.38
Botafogo -0.75	28%	17%	@ 5.75
Cruzeiro -1.25	26%	34%	2.78
Cruzeiro -1.5	21%	30%	3.13
Cruzeiro -2	15%	17%	5.50

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?

Our model's main pick is Botafogo Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.37, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo.

What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Cruzeiro and 1.29 for Botafogo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Cruzeiro and Botafogo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 26 July 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.