⚽ Eredivisie
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven finished 1-2. PSV Eindhoven won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Excelsior face PSV Eindhoven in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 70%, projecting a 1.3-2.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% |
| 1 | 2.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| 2 | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 70%. Goals lean over 2.5 (77%), both teams to score points yes (69%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven. Wins shown from Excelsior’s perspective: PSV Eindhoven 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Excelsior | 1 – 2 | PSV Eindhoven | L |
| 2026-01-10 | PSV Eindhoven | 5 – 1 | Excelsior | L |
| 2025-09-27 | Excelsior | 1 – 2 | PSV Eindhoven | L |
| 2024-04-02 | Excelsior | 0 – 2 | PSV Eindhoven | L |
| 2024-01-13 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 – 1 | Excelsior | L |
📈 Recent form
Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.
- DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
- WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Utrecht. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Twente.
- LTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. BosShoulder Injury
- J. SchoutenKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Excelsior at 12% to win and PSV Eindhoven at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven Win | 70% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Excelsior Win | 12% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.14 (88% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 88% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Excelsior or Draw | 30% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-2.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 77% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 88% | @ 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 51% | @ 1.84 |
| Under 3.5 | 42% | 49% | @ 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
| Under 1.5 | 9% | 12% | @ 7.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 31% | 34% | @ 2.70 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Excelsior or PSV Eindhoven is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven +0.75 | 90% | 86% | 1.10 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.5 | 88% | 82% | @ 1.16 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.25 | 84% | 79% | 1.19 |
| PSV Eindhoven 0 | 79% | 77% | 1.23 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.25 | 75% | 69% | @ 1.38 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.5 | 70% | 61% | @ 1.54 |
| Excelsior +2 | 64% | 72% | 1.31 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.75 | 64% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Excelsior +1.75 | 59% | 65% | 1.46 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1 | 58% | 51% | @ 1.88 |
| Excelsior +1.5 | 54% | 59% | 1.60 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.25 | 52% | 46% | @ 2.09 |
| Excelsior +1.25 | 48% | 54% | 1.75 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.5 | 46% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Excelsior +1 | 42% | 49% | 1.93 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.75 | 41% | 35% | @ 2.73 |
| Excelsior +0.75 | 36% | 43% | 2.23 |
| PSV Eindhoven -2 | 36% | 28% | @ 3.42 |
| Excelsior +0.5 | 30% | 39% | 2.43 |
| Excelsior +0.25 | 25% | 31% | 3.04 |
| Excelsior 0 | 21% | 23% | 4.23 |
| Excelsior -0.25 | 16% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Excelsior -0.5 | 12% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Excelsior -0.75 | 10% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.
Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 70%. It projects an expected 1.3-2.8 scoreline for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.31 for Excelsior and 2.76 for PSV Eindhoven. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven play?
Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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