⚽ Brazilian Série A
Fluminense vs Palmeiras Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fluminense vs Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Result: Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras
Fluminense vs Palmeiras finished 3-2. Fluminense won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Fluminense face Palmeiras in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Recent form: Fluminense have no wins from their last 3, while Palmeiras have 1 win from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Fluminense won 4, Palmeiras won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fluminense vs Palmeiras with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Fluminense vs Palmeiras comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Palmeiras with a +0.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points no (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Fluminense and Palmeiras. Wins shown from Fluminense’s perspective: Fluminense 4 · Palmeiras 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Fluminense | 3 – 2 | Palmeiras | W |
| 2024-12-08 | Palmeiras | 0 – 1 | Fluminense | W |
| 2024-07-25 | Fluminense | 1 – 0 | Palmeiras | W |
| 2023-12-03 | Palmeiras | 1 – 0 | Fluminense | L |
| 2023-08-06 | Fluminense | 2 – 1 | Palmeiras | W |
📈 Recent form
Fluminense come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Platense.
- WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
- LAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- WFluminense 2-0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
- WFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to São Paulo. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.
- DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
- LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
- WPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
- WPalmeiras 1-0 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. FreytesAnkle Injury
- Guilherme AranaInjury
- IgnacioSuspended (cards)
- John KennedyKnee Injury
- Matheus ReisKnee Injury
- JefteKnee Injury
- KhellvenMuscle Injury
- PaulinhoMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fluminense at 26% to win and Palmeiras at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras Win | 44% | 36% | @ 2.55 |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | @ 3.15 |
| Fluminense Win | 26% | 34% | @ 2.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.43 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras or Draw | 72% | 66% | @ 1.43 |
| Fluminense or Draw | 54% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 80% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 69% | @ 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 43% | @ 2.18 |
| Under 1.5 | 33% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 54% | 50% | @ 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 46% | 50% | @ 1.85 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fluminense or Palmeiras is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras +1.5 | 89% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Palmeiras +1.25 | 85% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Palmeiras +1 | 81% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Fluminense +1.5 | 77% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Palmeiras +0.75 | 76% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Palmeiras +0.5 | 72% | 66% | @ 1.43 |
| Fluminense +1.25 | 71% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Palmeiras +0.25 | 66% | 61% | @ 1.55 |
| Fluminense +1 | 65% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Fluminense +0.75 | 59% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Palmeiras 0 | 59% | 53% | @ 1.81 |
| Fluminense +0.5 | 54% | 62% | 1.51 |
| Palmeiras -0.25 | 53% | 44% | @ 2.17 |
| Fluminense +0.25 | 47% | 56% | 1.70 |
| Palmeiras -0.5 | 46% | 38% | @ 2.47 |
| Fluminense 0 | 41% | 47% | 2.03 |
| Palmeiras -0.75 | 41% | 30% | @ 3.12 |
| Palmeiras -1 | 35% | 22% | @ 4.37 |
| Fluminense -0.25 | 34% | 39% | 2.44 |
| Palmeiras -1.25 | 29% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Fluminense -0.5 | 28% | 34% | 2.73 |
| Fluminense -0.75 | 24% | 26% | 3.63 |
| Palmeiras -1.5 | 23% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Fluminense -1 | 19% | 18% | @ 5.39 |
| Fluminense -1.25 | 15% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Fluminense -1.5 | 11% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model's main pick is Palmeiras with a +0.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline for Fluminense vs Palmeiras.
What is the predicted score for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.98 for Fluminense and 1.34 for Palmeiras. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fluminense and Palmeiras play?
Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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