Sun 16 Aug1-1Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

São Paulo vs Coritiba Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for São Paulo vs Coritiba in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 00:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: São Paulo 1-1 Coritiba

São Paulo vs Coritiba finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

São Paulo face Coritiba in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 00:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, São Paulo won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 2.0-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for São Paulo vs Coritiba with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.29

83%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.00 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.9%	4.9%	3.0%	1.2%	0.4%
1	7.8%	9.7%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
2	7.8%	9.7%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
3	5.2%	6.5%	4.0%	1.7%	0.5%
4	2.6%	3.2%	2.0%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

São Paulo winDrawCoritiba win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Coritiba comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.29, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a São Paulo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

São Paulo 45%Draw 32%Coritiba 23%

45%32%23%

45%

São Paulo Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between São Paulo and Coritiba. Wins shown from São Paulo’s perspective: São Paulo 1 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	São Paulo	1 – 1	Coritiba	D
2023-09-27	São Paulo	2 – 1	Coritiba	W
2023-04-29	Coritiba	1 – 1	São Paulo	D

📈 Recent form

São Paulo

São Paulo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Palmeiras.

WSão Paulo 1-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
DSão Paulo 1-1 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
LBoca Juniors 1-0 São PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Vasco da Gama.

LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

São Paulo

Lucas MouraAchilles Tendon Injury
Lucca MarquesJaw injury
R. ToloiMuscle Injury

Coritiba

JosueInjury
Lucas RonierKnee Injury
B. OcampoInjury
Pedro RangelNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices São Paulo at 45% to win and Coritiba at 23%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo Win	45%	55%	@ 1.71
Draw	32%	26%	@ 3.55
Coritiba Win	23%	19%	@ 4.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is São Paulo or Draw at 1.17 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo or Draw	74%	81%	@ 1.17
Coritiba or Draw	52%	45%	@ 2.08

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	73%	@ 1.29
Over 2.5	63%	48%	@ 1.98
Under 3.5	59%	73%	@ 1.28
Over 3.5	41%	27%	@ 3.50
Under 2.5	37%	52%	@ 1.81
Under 1.5	17%	27%	@ 3.45

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	49%	@ 1.87
BTTS No	39%	51%	@ 1.83

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when São Paulo or Coritiba is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Coritiba +2	83%	82%	1.16
Coritiba +1.75	79%	–	1.26
São Paulo +0.75	78%	86%	1.10
Coritiba +1.5	75%	69%	@ 1.38
São Paulo +0.5	74%	81%	1.17
Coritiba +1.25	69%	65%	@ 1.48
São Paulo +0.25	67%	79%	1.22
Coritiba +1	63%	58%	@ 1.63
São Paulo 0	61%	75%	1.27
Coritiba +0.75	58%	52%	@ 1.88
São Paulo -0.25	55%	63%	1.50
Coritiba +0.5	52%	44%	@ 2.12
São Paulo -0.5	48%	56%	1.69
Coritiba +0.25	45%	37%	@ 2.62
São Paulo -0.75	42%	48%	2.00
Coritiba 0	39%	25%	@ 3.77
São Paulo -1	36%	42%	2.29
Coritiba -0.25	33%	21%	@ 4.46
São Paulo -1.25	31%	35%	2.72
Coritiba -0.5	26%	19%	@ 5.00
São Paulo -1.5	25%	31%	3.11
Coritiba -0.75	22%	14%	@ 6.80
São Paulo -2	17%	18%	5.25

📈 How the market moved

São Paulo 55%Draw 26%Coritiba 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for São Paulo vs Coritiba?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.29, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for São Paulo vs Coritiba?

Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline for São Paulo vs Coritiba.

What is the predicted score for São Paulo vs Coritiba?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 2.00 for São Paulo and 1.24 for Coritiba. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do São Paulo and Coritiba play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 00:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.