⚽ Brazilian Série A

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Chapecoense-sc face Bahia in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.2-2.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

88%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.23 – 2.41 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.6%	6.3%	7.6%	6.1%	3.7%
1	3.2%	7.8%	9.4%	7.5%	4.5%
2	2.0%	4.8%	5.8%	4.6%	2.8%
3	0.8%	2.0%	2.4%	1.9%	1.1%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-2

Chapecoense-sc winDrawBahia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 88%. On the match result, the model rates a Bahia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (65%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.85 (+30.3% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.85, 70% model probability, +30.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Chapecoense-sc 26%Draw 26%Bahia 48%

26%26%48%

48%

Bahia Win

70%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

+30.3%

Best value: Over 2.5

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Chapecoense-sc at 26% to win and Bahia at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bahia Win	48%	@ 2.08	+0.8%
Draw	26%	@ 3.45	-10.2%
Chapecoense-sc Win	26%	@ 3.30	-15.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bahia or Draw at 1.30 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bahia or Draw	74%	@ 1.30	-3.7%
Chapecoense-sc or Draw	51%	@ 1.70	-13.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	49%	@ 3.10	+52.8%
Over 2.5	70%	@ 1.85	+30.3%
Over 1.5	88%	@ 1.28	+12.4%
Under 3.5	51%	@ 1.35	-31.6%
Under 2.5	30%	@ 1.93	-42.9%
Under 1.5	12%	@ 3.60	-56.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	65%	@ 1.67	+8.3%
BTTS No	35%	@ 2.10	-26.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	63%
Dixon-Coles	Away	62%
GradientBoosting	Away	39%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.07 for the home side, 1.57 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 88% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.85 (+30.3% value).

Who is the favourite for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?

Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.4 scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia.

What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.23 for Chapecoense-sc and 2.41 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Chapecoense-sc and Bahia play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.