⚽ La Liga
Racing Santander vs Villarreal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Racing Santander vs Villarreal in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Result: Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal
Racing Santander vs Villarreal finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Racing Santander face Villarreal in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Racing Santander vs Villarreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Racing Santander vs Villarreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Villarreal or Draw at odds 1.33, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Villarreal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Racing Santander come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Alavés. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Celta Vigo.
- LCelta Vigo 5-0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- LBarcelona 7-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- WRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
- LRayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- WRacing Santander 3-2 ElcheLa Liga
Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Levante. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Real Betis.
- WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
- WMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
- LVillarreal 1-2 Real BetisLa Liga
- LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- LVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- G. GuliashviliLeg Injury
No absentees reported.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Racing Santander at 17% to win and Villarreal at 48%, with the draw at 35%. Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal Win | 48% | 44% | @ 2.16 |
| Draw | 35% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Racing Santander Win | 17% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Villarreal or Draw at 1.33 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal or Draw | 78% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Racing Santander or Draw | 47% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 53% | @ 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 57% | @ 1.63 |
| BTTS No | 43% | 43% | @ 2.17 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Racing Santander or Villarreal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal +1.5 | 92% | – | 1.08 |
| Villarreal +1.25 | 88% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Villarreal +1 | 85% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Villarreal +0.75 | 81% | 78% | @ 1.24 |
| Villarreal +0.5 | 78% | – | @ 1.33 |
| Racing Santander +1.75 | 75% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Villarreal +0.25 | 71% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Racing Santander +1.5 | 71% | 75% | 1.24 |
| Villarreal 0 | 65% | 61% | @ 1.55 |
| Racing Santander +1.25 | 65% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Villarreal -0.25 | 59% | 53% | @ 1.83 |
| Racing Santander +1 | 59% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Villarreal -0.5 | 53% | 45% | @ 2.09 |
| Racing Santander +0.75 | 53% | 61% | 1.57 |
| Villarreal -0.75 | 47% | 39% | @ 2.42 |
| Racing Santander +0.5 | 47% | 55% | 1.72 |
| Villarreal -1 | 41% | 31% | @ 3.07 |
| Racing Santander +0.25 | 41% | 47% | 2.04 |
| Villarreal -1.25 | 35% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Racing Santander 0 | 35% | 39% | 2.43 |
| Villarreal -1.5 | 29% | 25% | @ 3.77 |
| Racing Santander -0.25 | 29% | 33% | 2.94 |
| Villarreal -1.75 | 25% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Racing Santander -0.75 | 19% | 22% | 4.26 |
| Racing Santander -1 | 15% | 16% | 6.00 |
| Racing Santander -1.25 | 12% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Racing Santander vs Villarreal?
Our model's main pick is Villarreal or Draw at odds 1.33, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.
Who is the favourite for Racing Santander vs Villarreal?
Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Racing Santander vs Villarreal.
What is the predicted score for Racing Santander vs Villarreal?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.48 for Racing Santander and 1.34 for Villarreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Racing Santander and Villarreal play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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