Ilves

Thu 13 Aug1-1Finished

HNK Rijeka

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Ilves Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.31, landed.

Ilves face HNK Rijeka in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, HNK Rijeka won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a HNK Rijeka win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.0-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Ilves Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 1.31

88%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.04 – 1.22 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.4%	12.7%	7.8%	3.2%	1.0%
1	10.9%	13.2%	8.1%	3.3%	1.0%
2	5.6%	6.9%	4.2%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.0%	2.4%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-1

Ilves winDrawHNK Rijeka win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Ilves Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a HNK Rijeka win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Ilves 28%Draw 31%HNK Rijeka 41%

28%31%41%

41%

HNK Rijeka Win

61%

Under 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Ilves and HNK Rijeka. Wins shown from Ilves’s perspective: 1 drawn · HNK Rijeka 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-13	Ilves	1 – 1	HNK Rijeka	D
2026-08-06	HNK Rijeka	1 – 0	Ilves	L

📈 Recent form

Ilves

Ilves come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Turku PS. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to HJK Helsinki.

WTurku PS 0-3 IlvesVeikkausliiga
WIlves 3-1 LahtiVeikkausliiga
WIlves 2-0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
LIlves 1-2 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
LIlves 0-1 VPSVeikkausliiga

HNK Rijeka

HNK Rijeka come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to NK Osijek. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Midtjylland.

DNK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK RijekaHNL
WHNK Rijeka 4-1 NK OsijekHNL
LHNK Rijeka 1-4 FC MidtjyllandUEFA Europa Conference
WHNK Rijeka 3-2 Istra 1961HNL
LFC Midtjylland 2-0 HNK RijekaUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ilves at 28% to win and HNK Rijeka at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a HNK Rijeka win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
HNK Rijeka Win	41%	56%	@ 1.66
Draw	31%	25%	@ 3.65
Ilves Win	28%	19%	@ 4.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is HNK Rijeka or Draw at 1.13 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
HNK Rijeka or Draw	70%	81%	@ 1.13
Ilves or Draw	56%	44%	@ 2.06

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	81%	71%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	66%	71%	@ 1.29
Under 2.5	61%	52%	@ 1.77
Over 2.5	39%	48%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	34%	29%	@ 3.15
Over 3.5	19%	29%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	61%	51%	@ 1.79
BTTS Yes	39%	49%	@ 1.88

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ilves or HNK Rijeka is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ilves +2	85%	82%	1.16
Ilves +1.75	82%	–	@ 1.31
Ilves +1.5	79%	68%	@ 1.37
HNK Rijeka +0.75	74%	85%	1.12
Ilves +1.25	73%	65%	@ 1.45
HNK Rijeka +0.5	70%	79%	1.18
Ilves +1	68%	59%	@ 1.58
HNK Rijeka +0.25	63%	75%	1.25
Ilves +0.75	62%	52%	@ 1.84
HNK Rijeka 0	57%	72%	1.31
Ilves +0.5	56%	45%	@ 2.06
HNK Rijeka -0.25	50%	62%	1.52
Ilves +0.25	50%	38%	@ 2.44
HNK Rijeka -0.5	44%	55%	1.70
Ilves 0	43%	28%	@ 3.33
HNK Rijeka -0.75	38%	48%	1.97
Ilves -0.25	37%	25%	@ 3.82
HNK Rijeka -1	32%	41%	2.33
Ilves -0.5	30%	21%	@ 4.45
HNK Rijeka -1.25	27%	35%	2.66
Ilves -0.75	26%	15%	@ 6.25
HNK Rijeka -1.5	21%	32%	2.93
HNK Rijeka -2	15%	18%	5.25

📈 How the market moved

Ilves 21%Draw 26%HNK Rijeka 53%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?

Our model's main pick is Ilves Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?

Our model makes a HNK Rijeka win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.2 scoreline for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka.

What is the predicted score for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.04 for Ilves and 1.22 for HNK Rijeka. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ilves and HNK Rijeka play?

Kick-off is Thursday 13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.