vs
⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League
Ilves vs HNK Rijeka Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Result: Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka
Ilves vs HNK Rijeka finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Ilves Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.31, landed.
Ilves face HNK Rijeka in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, HNK Rijeka won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a HNK Rijeka win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.0-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Ilves Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 88%. On the match result, the model rates a HNK Rijeka win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Ilves or Draw at odds 2.20 (+24.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Ilves and HNK Rijeka. Wins shown from Ilves’s perspective: 1 drawn · HNK Rijeka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Ilves | 1 – 1 | HNK Rijeka | D |
| 2026-08-06 | HNK Rijeka | 1 – 0 | Ilves | L |
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Ilves at 28% to win and HNK Rijeka at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a HNK Rijeka win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves Win | 28% | 5.10 | +41.6% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.55 | +10.8% |
| HNK Rijeka Win | 41% | 1.63 | -33.1% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ilves or Draw at 2.20 (56% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves or Draw | 56% | 2.20 | +24.1% |
| HNK Rijeka or Draw | 70% | 1.11 | -22.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.80 | +9.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 34% | 3.20 | +8.9% |
| Under 3.5 | 81% | 1.28 | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 1.33 | -12.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 1.95 | -23.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 3.45 | -33.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 61%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.77 | +8.1% |
| BTTS Yes | 39% | 1.85 | -28.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ilves or HNK Rijeka is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves -0.75 | 26% | 6.25 | +61.5% |
| Ilves 0 | 43% | 3.33 | +44.2% |
| Ilves -0.25 | 37% | 3.82 | +40.8% |
| Ilves -0.5 | 30% | 4.45 | +35.1% |
| Ilves +0.25 | 50% | 2.44 | +22.0% |
| Ilves +0.5 | 56% | 2.06 | +16.3% |
| Ilves +0.75 | 62% | 1.84 | +14.4% |
| Ilves +1.5 | 79% | 1.37 | +7.8% |
| Ilves +1.75 | 82% | 1.31 | +7.6% |
| Ilves +1 | 68% | 1.58 | +7.2% |
| Ilves +1.25 | 73% | 1.45 | +6.2% |
| Ilves +2 | 85% | 1.16 | -0.9% |
| HNK Rijeka +0.75 | 74% | 1.12 | -16.9% |
| HNK Rijeka +0.5 | 70% | 1.18 | -18.2% |
| HNK Rijeka +0.25 | 63% | 1.25 | -21.4% |
| HNK Rijeka -2 | 15% | 5.25 | -23.4% |
| HNK Rijeka -0.25 | 50% | 1.52 | -23.8% |
| HNK Rijeka -1 | 32% | 2.33 | -24.8% |
| HNK Rijeka -0.75 | 38% | 1.97 | -25.3% |
| HNK Rijeka 0 | 57% | 1.31 | -25.8% |
| HNK Rijeka -0.5 | 44% | 1.70 | -25.9% |
| HNK Rijeka -1.25 | 27% | 2.66 | -28.9% |
| HNK Rijeka -1.5 | 21% | 2.93 | -38.1% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?
Our main pick is Ilves Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with 88% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Ilves or Draw at 2.20 (+24.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?
Our model makes a HNK Rijeka win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.2 scoreline for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka.
What is the predicted score for Ilves vs HNK Rijeka?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.04 for Ilves and 1.22 for HNK Rijeka. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Ilves and HNK Rijeka play?
Kick-off is Thursday 13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.