Thu 13 Aug1-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 Benfica

Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Heart Of Midlothian face Benfica in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Benfica won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 0.9-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

90%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.95 – 0.81 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	17.2%	13.9%	5.6%	1.5%	0.3%
1	16.3%	13.2%	5.4%	1.4%	0.3%
2	7.8%	6.3%	2.5%	0.7%	0.1%
3	2.5%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
4	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-0

Heart Of Midlothian winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 90% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (74%), both teams to score points no (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Heart Of Midlothian 23%Draw 25%Benfica 52%

23%25%52%

52%

Benfica Win

74%

Under 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Heart Of Midlothian and Benfica. Wins shown from Heart Of Midlothian’s perspective: 1 drawn · Benfica 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-13	Heart Of Midlothian	1 – 1	Benfica	D
2026-08-06	Benfica	6 – 1	Heart Of Midlothian	L

📈 Recent form

Heart Of Midlothian

Heart Of Midlothian come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Stenhousemuir. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Falkirk.

DKilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
LFalkirk 2-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
WStenhousemuir 0-3 Heart Of MidlothianLeague Cup
WHeart Of Midlothian 2-1 DundeePremiership
WHibernian 1-3 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Heart Of Midlothian at 23% to win and Benfica at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	52%	65%	@ 1.42
Draw	25%	20%	@ 4.60
Heart Of Midlothian Win	23%	14%	@ 6.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.08 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	77%	86%	@ 1.08
Heart Of Midlothian or Draw	48%	35%	@ 2.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 74% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	90%	58%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	74%	38%	@ 2.40
Over 1.5	52%	81%	@ 1.14
Under 1.5	48%	19%	@ 4.75
Over 2.5	26%	62%	@ 1.48
Over 3.5	10%	42%	@ 2.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	66%	44%	@ 2.08
BTTS Yes	34%	56%	@ 1.64

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Heart Of Midlothian or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Heart Of Midlothian +2	80%	68%	@ 1.39
Benfica +0.5	77%	–	1.11
Heart Of Midlothian +1.75	76%	61%	@ 1.55
Heart Of Midlothian +1.5	72%	55%	@ 1.69
Benfica +0.25	71%	83%	1.14
Heart Of Midlothian +1.25	66%	50%	@ 1.92
Benfica 0	65%	82%	1.16
Heart Of Midlothian +1	60%	43%	@ 2.20
Benfica -0.25	59%	73%	1.29
Heart Of Midlothian +0.75	54%	38%	@ 2.50
Benfica -0.5	52%	66%	1.40
Heart Of Midlothian +0.5	48%	34%	@ 2.77
Benfica -0.75	46%	62%	1.51
Heart Of Midlothian +0.25	41%	27%	@ 3.52
Benfica -1	40%	57%	1.65
Heart Of Midlothian 0	35%	18%	@ 5.25
Benfica -1.25	34%	50%	1.90
Heart Of Midlothian -0.25	29%	17%	@ 5.75
Benfica -1.5	28%	45%	2.09
Benfica -1.75	24%	39%	2.42
Benfica -2	20%	32%	2.94

📈 How the market moved

Heart Of Midlothian 15%Draw 20%Benfica 65%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 90% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 58%.

Who is the favourite for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 0.9-0.8 scoreline for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.95 for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.81 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Heart Of Midlothian and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.