⚽ Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia Dortmund
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund finished 2-3. Borussia Dortmund won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Hoffenheim face Borussia Dortmund in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Hoffenheim have 2 wins from their last 5, while Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Hoffenheim won 1, Borussia Dortmund won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.5-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Borussia Dortmund with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (67%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund. Wins shown from Hoffenheim’s perspective: Hoffenheim 1 · 1 drawn · Borussia Dortmund 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Hoffenheim | 2 – 3 | Borussia Dortmund | L |
| 2026-04-18 | Hoffenheim | 2 – 1 | Borussia Dortmund | W |
| 2025-12-07 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 – 0 | Hoffenheim | L |
| 2025-04-26 | Hoffenheim | 2 – 3 | Borussia Dortmund | L |
| 2024-12-15 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 – 1 | Hoffenheim | D |
📈 Recent form
Hoffenheim come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to VfB Stuttgart. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at SC Paderborn 07.
- LSC Paderborn 07 3-1 HoffenheimBundesliga
- LOFI 2-0 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League
- WHoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- LHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- L1. FC Köln 3-2 HoffenheimBundesliga
Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at HEBC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- WHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WHEBC 0-5 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- F. AsllaniInjury
- A. PrassMuscle Injury
- R. BensebainiRibs Injury
- E. CanKnee Injury
- S. InacioSuspended (red card)
- M. KabaInjury
- G. KonstanteliasKnee Injury
- J. LermaMuscle Injury
- N. SchlotterbeckAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Hoffenheim at 29% to win and Borussia Dortmund at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 50% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Hoffenheim Win | 29% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.42 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund or Draw | 73% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Hoffenheim or Draw | 52% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 66% | @ 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 | 53% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 15% | @ 6.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 67% | @ 1.38 |
| BTTS No | 33% | 33% | @ 2.85 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund +1.75 | 92% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Borussia Dortmund +1.5 | 90% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Borussia Dortmund +1.25 | 86% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Hoffenheim +2 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Borussia Dortmund +1 | 81% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Hoffenheim +1.75 | 79% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.75 | 77% | 73% | @ 1.31 |
| Hoffenheim +1.5 | 76% | 75% | 1.25 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 73% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Hoffenheim +1.25 | 70% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.25 | 67% | 63% | @ 1.52 |
| Hoffenheim +1 | 64% | 71% | 1.35 |
| Borussia Dortmund 0 | 60% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Hoffenheim +0.75 | 58% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.25 | 54% | 49% | @ 2.00 |
| Hoffenheim +0.5 | 52% | 57% | 1.68 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.5 | 48% | 43% | @ 2.21 |
| Hoffenheim +0.25 | 46% | 51% | 1.89 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.75 | 42% | 37% | @ 2.58 |
| Hoffenheim 0 | 40% | 44% | 2.19 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1 | 36% | 29% | @ 3.23 |
| Hoffenheim -0.25 | 33% | 37% | 2.54 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.25 | 30% | 27% | @ 3.60 |
| Hoffenheim -0.5 | 27% | 33% | 2.89 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.5 | 24% | 25% | 3.80 |
| Hoffenheim -0.75 | 23% | 27% | 3.52 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.75 | 21% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Hoffenheim -1 | 19% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Borussia Dortmund -2 | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Hoffenheim -1.25 | 14% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Hoffenheim -1.5 | 10% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Hoffenheim -1.75 | 9% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model's main pick is Borussia Dortmund with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.5-2.1 scoreline for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund.
What is the predicted score for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.46 for Hoffenheim and 2.06 for Borussia Dortmund. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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