⚽ Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart finished 2-1. Hoffenheim won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.44, landed.
Hoffenheim face VfB Stuttgart in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Hoffenheim have 1 win from their last 5, while VfB Stuttgart have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Hoffenheim won 1, 4 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.8-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| 2 | 2.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is VfB Stuttgart with a +1.25 start at odds 1.29, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (77%), both teams to score points yes (74%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart. Wins shown from Hoffenheim’s perspective: Hoffenheim 1 · 4 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Hoffenheim | 2 – 1 | VfB Stuttgart | W |
| 2026-05-02 | Hoffenheim | 3 – 3 | VfB Stuttgart | D |
| 2025-12-20 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 – 0 | Hoffenheim | D |
| 2025-02-23 | Hoffenheim | 1 – 1 | VfB Stuttgart | D |
| 2024-10-06 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 – 1 | Hoffenheim | D |
📈 Recent form
Hoffenheim come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to VfB Stuttgart. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at SC Paderborn 07.
- LSC Paderborn 07 3-1 HoffenheimBundesliga
- LOFI 2-0 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League
- WHoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- LHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- L1. FC Köln 3-2 HoffenheimBundesliga
VfB Stuttgart come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to 1. FC Köln. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund.
- LVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- LHoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- WVfB Stuttgart 3-1 VikingUEFA Champions League
- WVfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- LBayern Munich 5-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. PrassMuscle Injury
- L. AssignonShoulder Injury
- J. DiehlMuscle Injury
- L. JaquezMuscle Injury
- N. NarteyThigh Injury
- D. SeimenThigh Injury
- T. TomasMuscle Injury
- D. ZagadouMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Hoffenheim at 30% to win and VfB Stuttgart at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart Win | 46% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Hoffenheim Win | 30% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.57 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart or Draw | 71% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Hoffenheim or Draw | 55% | 64% | @ 1.44 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 77% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 3.5 | 43% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 9% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 74%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 74% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| BTTS No | 26% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +2 | 92% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.75 | 90% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.5 | 88% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.25 | 84% | 74% | @ 1.29 |
| Hoffenheim +1.75 | 81% | 85% | 1.12 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1 | 80% | 71% | @ 1.34 |
| Hoffenheim +1.5 | 78% | 80% | 1.18 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 75% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Hoffenheim +1.25 | 72% | 79% | 1.20 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 71% | 58% | @ 1.65 |
| Hoffenheim +1 | 67% | 77% | 1.25 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 64% | 53% | @ 1.82 |
| Hoffenheim +0.75 | 61% | 70% | 1.35 |
| VfB Stuttgart 0 | 58% | 46% | @ 2.10 |
| Hoffenheim +0.5 | 55% | 64% | 1.48 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.25 | 51% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| Hoffenheim +0.25 | 49% | 60% | 1.59 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.5 | 45% | 36% | @ 2.69 |
| Hoffenheim 0 | 42% | 54% | 1.76 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.75 | 39% | 30% | @ 3.21 |
| Hoffenheim -0.25 | 36% | 47% | 2.06 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1 | 33% | 23% | @ 4.09 |
| Hoffenheim -0.5 | 29% | 42% | 2.29 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.25 | 28% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Hoffenheim -0.75 | 25% | 36% | 2.65 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.5 | 22% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Hoffenheim -1 | 20% | 29% | 3.31 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.75 | 19% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Hoffenheim -1.25 | 16% | 26% | 3.62 |
| Hoffenheim -1.5 | 12% | 24% | 3.90 |
| Hoffenheim -1.75 | 10% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Hoffenheim -2 | 8% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model's main pick is VfB Stuttgart with a +1.25 start at odds 1.29, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.8-2.2 scoreline for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart.
What is the predicted score for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.80 for Hoffenheim and 2.23 for VfB Stuttgart. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart play?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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