Aarhus

Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Aarhus face Egnatia Rrogozhinë in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 0.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.40

90%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.68 – 1.05 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	17.7%	18.6%	9.8%	3.4%	0.9%
1	12.1%	12.7%	6.6%	2.3%	0.6%
2	4.1%	4.3%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%
3	0.9%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
4	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Aarhus winDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 90% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points no (68%).

📊 Key numbers

Aarhus 27%Draw 37%Egnatia Rrogozhinë 36%

27%37%36%

37%

Draw

75%

Under 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Aarhus

Aarhus come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Sonderjyske. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Gent.

DFC Copenhagen 1-1 AarhusSuperliga
LGent 1-0 AarhusUEFA Europa Conference
WAarhus 3-0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
WAarhus 2-1 Vendsyssel FFFriendlies Clubs
DAC Horsens 2-2 AarhusSuperliga

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Vllaznia Shkodër. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at AF Elbasani.

WEgnatia Rrogozhinë 3-1 Vllaznia ShkodërSuperliga
DEgnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 FC MidtjyllandUEFA Europa Conference
WLaci 0-2 Egnatia RrogozhinëSuperliga
WEgnatia Rrogozhinë 2-1 PartizaniSuperliga
LAF Elbasani 2-1 Egnatia RrogozhinëSuperliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aarhus at 27% to win and Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 36%, with the draw at 37%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Draw	37%	22%	@ 4.33
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Win	36%	16%	@ 6.00
Aarhus Win	27%	63%	@ 1.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw at 2.50 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw	68%	37%	@ 2.50
Aarhus or Draw	59%	84%	@ 1.14

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 75% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	90%	66%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	75%	45%	@ 2.08
Over 1.5	52%	77%	@ 1.22
Under 1.5	48%	23%	@ 4.00
Over 2.5	25%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	10%	34%	@ 2.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	68%	50%	@ 1.83
BTTS Yes	32%	50%	@ 1.83

📈 How the market moved

Aarhus 63%Draw 22%Egnatia Rrogozhinë 15%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	44%
GradientBoosting	Draw	38%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.21 for the home side, 1.39 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (19%), 0-0 (18%), 1-1 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 90% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 0.7-1.1 scoreline for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë.

What is the predicted score for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.68 for Aarhus and 1.05 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.