Wed 16 Sep0-2Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa League

AC Milan vs Benfica Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AC Milan vs Benfica in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: AC Milan 0-2 Benfica

AC Milan vs Benfica finished 0-2. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Benfica Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.31, landed.

AC Milan face Benfica in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AC Milan vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Benfica Asian Handicap +1.25 @ 1.31

86%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	9.7%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
1	12.2%	12.9%	6.8%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.1%	8.6%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.6%	3.8%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AC Milan winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Benfica Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.31, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

AC Milan 28%Draw 21%Benfica 51%

28%21%51%

51%

Benfica Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

AC Milan

AC Milan come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Lecce. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Benfica.

WAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
LAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A
DJuventus 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
WAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AC Milan

No absentees reported.

Benfica

A. BahInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AC Milan at 28% to win and Benfica at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	51%	28%	@ 3.35
AC Milan Win	28%	47%	@ 2.02
Draw	21%	25%	@ 3.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.77 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	74%	53%	@ 1.77
AC Milan or Draw	51%	72%	@ 1.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	64%	@ 1.47
Over 1.5	69%	79%	@ 1.19
Under 2.5	57%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 2.5	43%	57%	@ 1.65
Under 1.5	31%	21%	@ 4.50
Over 3.5	22%	36%	@ 2.65

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	40%	@ 2.32
BTTS Yes	48%	60%	@ 1.55

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when AC Milan or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica +2	94%	86%	@ 1.10
Benfica +1.75	92%	79%	@ 1.19
Benfica +1.5	90%	74%	@ 1.27
Benfica +1.25	86%	72%	@ 1.31
Benfica +1	82%	69%	@ 1.38
Benfica +0.75	78%	61%	@ 1.57
AC Milan +1.5	75%	86%	1.10
Benfica +0.5	74%	54%	@ 1.75
AC Milan +1.25	69%	86%	1.11
Benfica +0.25	68%	48%	@ 2.02
AC Milan +1	63%	84%	1.12
Benfica 0	62%	38%	@ 2.48
AC Milan +0.75	57%	77%	1.23
Benfica -0.25	55%	33%	@ 2.88
AC Milan +0.5	51%	71%	1.33
Benfica -0.5	49%	29%	@ 3.31
AC Milan +0.25	45%	67%	1.42
Benfica -0.75	43%	23%	@ 4.18
AC Milan 0	38%	62%	1.54
Benfica -1	37%	16%	@ 6.00
AC Milan -0.25	32%	52%	1.85
Benfica -1.25	31%	14%	@ 6.60
AC Milan -0.5	26%	46%	2.10
Benfica -1.5	25%	14%	@ 7.00
AC Milan -0.75	22%	39%	2.42
AC Milan -1	18%	31%	3.08
AC Milan -1.25	14%	28%	3.44
AC Milan -1.5	10%	26%	3.67
AC Milan -1.75	8%	21%	4.50
AC Milan -2	6%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

AC Milan 45%Draw 26%Benfica 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AC Milan vs Benfica?

Our model's main pick is Benfica Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.31, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for AC Milan vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for AC Milan and 1.06 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AC Milan and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.