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⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Ajax face Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Ajax have 3 wins from their last 5, while Atalanta have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 2.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs Atalanta with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.57

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.50 – 1.33 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.2%	2.9%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%
1	5.4%	7.2%	4.8%	2.1%	0.7%
2	6.8%	9.0%	6.0%	2.7%	0.9%
3	5.7%	7.5%	5.0%	2.2%	0.7%
4	3.5%	4.7%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%

Projected score: 2-1

Ajax winDrawAtalanta win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ajax vs Atalanta comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (74%), both teams to score points yes (68%).

📊 Key numbers

Ajax 43%Draw 28%Atalanta 29%

43%28%29%

43%

Ajax Win

74%

Over 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at HNK Hajduk Split.

WGroningen 2-5 AjaxEredivisie
LHNK Hajduk Split 2-1 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference
DAjax 1-1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Pafos. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at AC Milan.

LAC Milan 3-2 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 3-1 PafosUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 3-1 VeneziaSerie A
LJuventus 2-0 AtalantaSerie A
LAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ajax at 43% to win and Atalanta at 29%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax Win	43%	45%	@ 2.10
Atalanta Win	29%	29%	@ 3.20
Draw	28%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.36 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax or Draw	70%	71%	@ 1.36
Atalanta or Draw	56%	55%	@ 1.70

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 74% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	90%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	74%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	53%	41%	@ 2.25
Under 3.5	47%	59%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	26%	40%	@ 2.35
Under 1.5	10%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	68%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	32%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Ajax 44%Draw 25%Atalanta 30%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	63%
GradientBoosting	Home	37%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.46 for the home side, 1.15 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs Atalanta?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 60%.

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Atalanta?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 2.5-1.3 scoreline for Ajax vs Atalanta.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Atalanta?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.50 for Ajax and 1.33 for Atalanta. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ajax and Atalanta play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.