⚽ Eredivisie
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: Ajax 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven finished 1-3. PSV Eindhoven won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, PSV Eindhoven Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at 1.35, landed.
Ajax face PSV Eindhoven in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Ajax have 2 wins from their last 3, while PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 2, PSV Eindhoven won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.6-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is PSV Eindhoven Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.35, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (70%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Ajax and PSV Eindhoven. Wins shown from Ajax’s perspective: Ajax 2 · 2 drawn · PSV Eindhoven 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ajax | 1 – 3 | PSV Eindhoven | L |
| 2026-05-02 | Ajax | 2 – 2 | PSV Eindhoven | D |
| 2025-09-21 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 – 2 | Ajax | D |
| 2025-03-30 | PSV Eindhoven | 0 – 2 | Ajax | W |
| 2024-11-02 | Ajax | 3 – 2 | PSV Eindhoven | W |
📈 Recent form
Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
- LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie
PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Utrecht. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Twente.
- LTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. AdingraFoot Injury
- D. BlindInjury
- R. BounidaInjury
- S. OuaissaMuscle Injury
- A. PleaInjury
- J. SchoutenKnee Injury
- S. LammersNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Ajax at 21% to win and PSV Eindhoven at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven Win | 55% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Ajax Win | 21% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.44 (79% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 79% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Ajax or Draw | 45% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 87% | @ 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 70% | @ 1.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | @ 1.88 |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | 50% | @ 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 13% | @ 7.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 70%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 70% | 71% | @ 1.30 |
| BTTS No | 30% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ajax or PSV Eindhoven is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven +1.75 | 94% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| PSV Eindhoven +1.5 | 93% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| PSV Eindhoven +1.25 | 89% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| PSV Eindhoven +1 | 86% | 77% | @ 1.25 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.75 | 82% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.5 | 79% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Ajax +2 | 78% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Ajax +1.75 | 74% | 80% | 1.18 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.25 | 73% | 60% | @ 1.59 |
| Ajax +1.5 | 69% | 76% | 1.24 |
| PSV Eindhoven 0 | 67% | 54% | @ 1.77 |
| Ajax +1.25 | 63% | 74% | 1.27 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.25 | 61% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
| Ajax +1 | 57% | 72% | 1.32 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.5 | 55% | 41% | @ 2.33 |
| Ajax +0.75 | 51% | 64% | 1.48 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.75 | 49% | 36% | @ 2.67 |
| Ajax +0.5 | 45% | 59% | 1.61 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1 | 43% | 28% | @ 3.38 |
| Ajax +0.25 | 39% | 54% | 1.78 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.25 | 37% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
| Ajax 0 | 33% | 46% | 2.08 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.5 | 31% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Ajax -0.25 | 27% | 40% | 2.38 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.75 | 26% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| PSV Eindhoven -2 | 22% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Ajax -0.5 | 21% | 36% | 2.67 |
| Ajax -0.75 | 18% | 30% | 3.22 |
| Ajax -1 | 14% | 23% | 4.07 |
| Ajax -1.25 | 11% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Ajax -1.5 | 7% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Ajax -1.75 | 6% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model's main pick is PSV Eindhoven Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.35, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.6-2.1 scoreline for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.61 for Ajax and 2.08 for PSV Eindhoven. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Ajax and PSV Eindhoven play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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