Fri 23 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ La Liga

Alavés vs Málaga Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alavés vs Málaga in the La Liga. Kick-off Friday 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alavés face Málaga in the La Liga, kicking off Friday 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Alavés have 1 win from their last 5, while Málaga have no wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alavés win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.7-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alavés vs Málaga with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

72%Bookmaker odds imply 72%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.67 – 0.62 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	6.3%	1.9%	0.4%	0.1%
1	16.9%	10.5%	3.3%	0.7%	0.1%
2	14.1%	8.8%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%
3	7.9%	4.9%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%
4	3.3%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Alavés winDrawMálaga win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alavés vs Málaga comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Alavés win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Alavés 47%Draw 29%Málaga 24%

47%29%24%

47%

Alavés Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Alavés

Alavés come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Celta Vigo.

LCelta Vigo 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 1-2 Atlético MadridLa Liga
DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga

Málaga

Málaga come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 2-5 at home to Real Sociedad.

LMálaga 2-5 Real SociedadLa Liga
DMálaga 1-1 EspanyolLa Liga
LGetafe 1-0 MálagaLa Liga
LMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
DCelta Vigo 1-1 MálagaLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Alavés

F. GarcesSuspended
M. RodriguezAnkle Injury

Málaga

J. LobeteKnee Injury
A. OchoaKnee Injury
J. CruzMuscle Injury
D. MurilloKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alavés at 47% to win and Málaga at 24%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Alavés win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alavés Win	47%	55%	@ 1.73
Draw	29%	27%	@ 3.50
Málaga Win	24%	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Alavés or Draw at 1.17 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alavés or Draw	74%	82%	@ 1.17
Málaga or Draw	51%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	75%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	67%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	60%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	40%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	33%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	20%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	62%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	38%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Alavés 55%Draw 26%Málaga 19%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alavés vs Málaga?

Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Alavés vs Málaga?

Our model makes an Alavés win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.6 scoreline for Alavés vs Málaga.

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Málaga?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.67 for Alavés and 0.62 for Málaga. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alavés and Málaga play?

Kick-off is Friday 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.