⚽ La Liga

Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alaves vs Osasuna in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alaves face Osasuna in the La Liga, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Alaves have 2 wins from their last 3, while Osasuna have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Osasuna won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alaves win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alaves vs Osasuna with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.46

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.31 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	9.9%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
1	12.2%	13.0%	6.9%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.0%	8.5%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.5%	3.7%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.1%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alaves winDrawOsasuna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alaves vs Osasuna is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.46, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates an Alaves win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.46, 68% model probability, +0.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Alaves 38%Draw 32%Osasuna 30%

38%32%30%

38%

Alaves Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

+0.0%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alaves and Osasuna. Wins shown from Alaves’s perspective: 3 drawn · Osasuna 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-05	Alaves	2 – 2	Osasuna	D
2025-12-20	Osasuna	3 – 0	Alaves	L
2025-05-24	Alaves	1 – 1	Osasuna	D
2024-12-08	Osasuna	2 – 2	Alaves	D
2024-03-04	Osasuna	1 – 0	Alaves	L

📈 Recent form

Alaves

Alaves come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 1. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Getafe. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WAlaves 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
DRayo Vallecano 1-1 AlavesLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 GetafeLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
WGirona 0-1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs

Osasuna

Osasuna come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Getafe. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Al Ain.

WOsasuna 1-0 GetafeLa Liga
DOsasuna 0-0 LevanteLa Liga
WCelta Vigo 1-2 OsasunaLa Liga
LOsasuna 0-2 Al AinFriendlies Clubs
LNapoli 2-1 OsasunaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Alaves

F. GarcesSuspended
M. RodriguezAnkle Injury
T. MartinezFoot Injury

Osasuna

J. HerrandoInjury
A. OrozMuscle Injury
V. RosierHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alaves at 38% to win and Osasuna at 30%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes an Alaves win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Osasuna Win	30%	@ 3.40	+3.7%
Draw	32%	@ 3.05	-2.9%
Alaves Win	38%	@ 2.30	-13.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Osasuna or Draw at 1.60 (60% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Osasuna or Draw	60%	@ 1.60	-4.6%
Alaves or Draw	67%	@ 1.30	-13.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	42%	@ 2.43	+2.7%
Over 3.5	22%	@ 4.75	+2.1%
Over 1.5	68%	@ 1.46	+0.0%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.17	-8.2%
Under 2.5	58%	@ 1.55	-10.5%
Under 1.5	32%	@ 2.70	-14.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	48%	@ 2.00	-4.6%
BTTS No	52%	@ 1.74	-9.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	43%
Dixon-Coles	Home	42%
GradientBoosting	Draw	35%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.37 for the home side, 1.22 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alaves vs Osasuna?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.46, with 68% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Osasuna?

Our model makes an Alaves win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for Alaves vs Osasuna.

What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Osasuna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.31 for Alaves and 1.06 for Osasuna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alaves and Osasuna play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.