Sun 6 Sep5-2Finished

⚽ La Liga

Alavés vs Osasuna Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alavés vs Osasuna in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Alavés 5-2 Osasuna

Alavés vs Osasuna finished 5-2. Alavés won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Alavés face Osasuna in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Alavés have 2 wins from their last 3, while Osasuna have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Alavés won 1, Osasuna won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alavés win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alavés vs Osasuna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Osasuna +1 @ 1.28

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.30 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.4%	10.0%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
1	12.3%	13.0%	6.9%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.0%	8.5%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.5%	3.7%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.1%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alavés winDrawOsasuna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alavés vs Osasuna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Osasuna with a +1 start at odds 1.28, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Alavés win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Alavés 37%Draw 32%Osasuna 31%

37%32%31%

37%

Alavés Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alavés and Osasuna. Wins shown from Alavés’s perspective: Alavés 1 · 3 drawn · Osasuna 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-06	Alavés	5 – 2	Osasuna	W
2026-04-05	Alavés	2 – 2	Osasuna	D
2025-12-20	Osasuna	3 – 0	Alavés	L
2025-05-24	Alavés	1 – 1	Osasuna	D
2024-12-08	Osasuna	2 – 2	Alavés	D

📈 Recent form

Alavés

Alavés come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Valencia.

DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
WAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WAlavés 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga

Osasuna

Osasuna come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Getafe. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Atlético Madrid.

DOsasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
LAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
LOsasuna 0-2 EspanyolLa Liga
LAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WOsasuna 1-0 GetafeLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Alavés

F. GarcesSuspended
T. MartinezFoot Injury
M. RodriguezAnkle Injury

Osasuna

J. HerrandoMuscle Injury
A. OrozMuscle Injury
V. RosierHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alavés at 37% to win and Osasuna at 31%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes an Alavés win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alavés Win	37%	41%	@ 2.30
Draw	32%	31%	@ 3.05
Osasuna Win	31%	28%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Alavés or Draw at 1.30 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alavés or Draw	67%	72%	@ 1.30
Osasuna or Draw	60%	59%	@ 1.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	80%	@ 1.17
Over 1.5	68%	65%	@ 1.46
Under 2.5	58%	61%	@ 1.55
Over 2.5	42%	39%	@ 2.43
Under 1.5	32%	35%	@ 2.70
Over 3.5	21%	20%	@ 4.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	53%	@ 1.74
BTTS Yes	47%	47%	@ 2.00

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Alavés or Osasuna is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Osasuna +1.75	84%	85%	1.12
Osasuna +1.5	81%	79%	1.19
Alavés +1	76%	86%	1.10
Osasuna +1.25	76%	78%	1.23
Alavés +0.75	71%	–	1.21
Osasuna +1	70%	74%	1.28
Alavés +0.5	67%	73%	1.31
Osasuna +0.75	65%	65%	1.47
Alavés +0.25	60%	68%	1.41
Osasuna +0.5	60%	57%	1.67
Alavés 0	53%	61%	1.56
Osasuna +0.25	53%	50%	@ 1.94
Alavés -0.25	47%	50%	1.93
Osasuna 0	47%	39%	@ 2.46
Alavés -0.5	40%	43%	2.25
Osasuna -0.25	40%	32%	@ 2.98
Alavés -0.75	35%	35%	2.73
Osasuna -0.5	33%	27%	@ 3.48
Alavés -1	30%	26%	@ 3.68
Alavés -1.25	24%	22%	@ 4.25
Osasuna -1	24%	14%	@ 7.00
Alavés -1.5	19%	21%	4.50
Alavés -1.75	16%	15%	6.25

📈 How the market moved

Alavés 42%Draw 31%Osasuna 27%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alavés vs Osasuna?

Our model's main pick is Osasuna with a +1 start at odds 1.28, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Alavés vs Osasuna?

Our model makes an Alavés win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for Alavés vs Osasuna.

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Osasuna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Alavés and 1.06 for Osasuna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alavés and Osasuna play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.