Tue 15 Sep0-1Finished

⚽ La Liga

Alavés vs Valencia Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alavés vs Valencia in the La Liga. Kick-off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Alavés 0-1 Valencia

Alavés vs Valencia finished 0-1. Valencia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.38, did not land.

Alavés face Valencia in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Alavés have 3 wins from their last 4, while Valencia have no wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Alavés won 1, Valencia won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alavés win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.5-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alavés vs Valencia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Valencia +1.5 @ 1.32

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.53 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	8.0%	4.1%	1.4%	0.4%
1	11.7%	12.2%	6.3%	2.2%	0.6%
2	9.0%	9.3%	4.8%	1.7%	0.4%
3	4.6%	4.8%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.7%	1.8%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alavés winDrawValencia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alavés vs Valencia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Valencia with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Alavés win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Alavés 42%Draw 30%Valencia 28%

42%30%28%

42%

Alavés Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alavés and Valencia. Wins shown from Alavés’s perspective: Alavés 1 · 2 drawn · Valencia 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-15	Alavés	0 – 1	Valencia	L
2026-03-08	Valencia	3 – 2	Alavés	L
2025-10-20	Alavés	0 – 0	Valencia	D
2025-05-14	Alavés	1 – 0	Valencia	W
2024-12-22	Valencia	2 – 2	Alavés	D

📈 Recent form

Alavés

Alavés come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Valencia.

DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
WAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WAlavés 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga

Valencia

Valencia come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Alavés. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Real Sociedad.

LValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
WAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
LValencia 0-5 BarcelonaLa Liga
LDeportivo La Coruña 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Alavés

F. GarcesSuspended
A. ManasInjury
M. RodriguezAnkle Injury

Valencia

S. CanosKnee Injury
J. CopeteAnkle Injury
M. DiakhabyMuscle Injury
D. FoulquierInjury
D. LopezKnee Injury
U. SadiqMuscle Injury
C. TarregaHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alavés at 42% to win and Valencia at 28%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Alavés win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alavés Win	42%	42%	@ 2.23
Draw	30%	31%	@ 3.05
Valencia Win	28%	27%	@ 3.45

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Alavés or Draw at 1.26 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alavés or Draw	70%	73%	@ 1.26
Valencia or Draw	56%	58%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	78%	@ 1.20
Over 1.5	73%	68%	@ 1.38
Under 2.5	53%	58%	@ 1.58
Over 2.5	47%	42%	@ 2.18
Under 1.5	27%	32%	@ 2.90
Over 3.5	26%	22%	@ 4.25

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	49%	@ 1.89
BTTS No	50%	51%	@ 1.78

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Alavés or Valencia is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Valencia +2	85%	85%	1.12
Valencia +1.75	82%	77%	@ 1.22
Valencia +1.5	79%	72%	@ 1.32
Alavés +0.75	74%	–	1.14
Valencia +1.25	73%	68%	@ 1.40
Alavés +0.5	70%	–	1.19
Valencia +1	68%	63%	@ 1.51
Alavés +0.25	63%	–	1.24
Valencia +0.75	62%	54%	@ 1.76
Alavés 0	57%	73%	1.31
Valencia +0.5	56%	47%	@ 2.04
Alavés -0.25	50%	61%	1.56
Valencia +0.25	50%	39%	@ 2.45
Alavés -0.5	44%	53%	1.83
Valencia 0	43%	27%	@ 3.57
Alavés -0.75	38%	46%	2.09
Alavés -1	32%	37%	2.60
Alavés -1.25	27%	32%	2.99
Alavés -1.5	21%	28%	3.44
Alavés -1.75	18%	23%	4.15
Alavés -2	15%	15%	6.25

📈 How the market moved

Alavés 52%Draw 29%Valencia 19%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alavés vs Valencia?

Our model's main pick is Valencia with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Alavés vs Valencia?

Our model makes an Alavés win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline for Alavés vs Valencia.

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Valencia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.53 for Alavés and 1.04 for Valencia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alavés and Valencia play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.