Ararat-Armenia
Sparta Praha⚽ UEFA Europa League
Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Result: Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha finished 1-4. Sparta Praha won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.34, did not land.
Ararat-Armenia face Sparta Praha in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 16:45 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Sparta Praha won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 2.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.34, with a 92% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (74%), both teams to score points yes (69%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha. Wins shown from Ararat-Armenia’s perspective: Sparta Praha 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 – 4 | Sparta Praha | L |
| 2025-08-14 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 – 2 | Sparta Praha | L |
| 2025-08-07 | Sparta Praha | 4 – 1 | Ararat-Armenia | L |
📈 Recent form
Ararat-Armenia come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Syunik. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to Sparta Praha.
- WShirak 1-3 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
- LArarat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
- WArarat-Armenia 3-0 SyunikPremier League
- WArarat 0-1 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
- LPyunik Yerevan 2-1 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
Sparta Praha come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Viktoria Žižkov. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Hradec Králové.
- WSigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- WArarat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
- WSparta Praha 2-0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- WViktoria Žižkov 0-5 Sparta PrahaCup
- LHradec Králové 2-1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
No absentees reported.
- M. AndersenKnee Injury
- E. CobbautGroin Injury
- K. HoeverHip Injury
- S. MannsverkKnee Injury
- J. MartinecHealth problems
- O. PenxaKnee Injury
- A. SevinskySuspended (red card)
- E. UchennaGroin Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Ararat-Armenia at 43% to win and Sparta Praha at 19%, with the draw at 38%. Our model makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia Win | 43% | 19% | @ 5.20 |
| Draw | 38% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Sparta Praha Win | 19% | 58% | @ 1.66 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ararat-Armenia or Draw at 2.23 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia or Draw | 74% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Sparta Praha or Draw | 51% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 74% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 | 74% | 58% | @ 1.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 3.5 | 47% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | 20% | @ 4.70 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 57% | @ 1.63 |
| BTTS No | 31% | 43% | @ 2.16 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ararat-Armenia or Sparta Praha is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia +2 | 94% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.75 | 92% | 71% | @ 1.34 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.5 | 90% | 65% | @ 1.48 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.25 | 86% | 60% | @ 1.58 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1 | 82% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.75 | 78% | 47% | @ 2.06 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.5 | 74% | 42% | @ 2.28 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.25 | 68% | 34% | @ 2.79 |
| Ararat-Armenia 0 | 62% | 25% | @ 3.85 |
| Sparta Praha +0.75 | 56% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.25 | 56% | 21% | @ 4.42 |
| Sparta Praha +0.5 | 51% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.5 | 49% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Sparta Praha +0.25 | 44% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.75 | 44% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Sparta Praha 0 | 38% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Sparta Praha -0.25 | 32% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Sparta Praha -0.5 | 26% | 58% | 1.64 |
| Sparta Praha -0.75 | 22% | 53% | 1.82 |
| Sparta Praha -1 | 18% | 46% | 2.08 |
| Sparta Praha -1.25 | 14% | 40% | 2.40 |
| Sparta Praha -1.5 | 10% | 35% | 2.68 |
| Sparta Praha -1.75 | 8% | 29% | 3.23 |
| Sparta Praha -2 | 6% | 22% | 4.29 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha?
Our model's main pick is Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.34, with a 92% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha?
Our model makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 2.5-1.4 scoreline for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha.
What is the predicted score for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.45 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.39 for Sparta Praha. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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