⚽ Serie A

AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AS Roma vs Atalanta in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AS Roma face Atalanta in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: AS Roma have 5 wins from their last 5, while Atalanta have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AS Roma vs Atalanta with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.48 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.2%	8.3%	4.8%	1.8%	0.5%
1	10.7%	12.3%	7.1%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.1%	5.2%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.9%	4.5%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AS Roma winDrawAtalanta win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Atalanta is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.85, 53% model probability, -2.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

AS Roma 50%Draw 27%Atalanta 23%

50%27%23%

50%

AS Roma Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-2.5%

Best value: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between AS Roma and Atalanta. Wins shown from AS Roma’s perspective: 1 drawn · Atalanta 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-18	AS Roma	1 – 1	Atalanta	D
2026-01-03	Atalanta	1 – 0	AS Roma	L
2025-05-12	Atalanta	2 – 1	AS Roma	L
2024-12-02	AS Roma	0 – 2	Atalanta	L
2024-05-12	Atalanta	2 – 1	AS Roma	L

📈 Recent form

AS Roma

AS Roma come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Lecce. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Brighton.

WLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
WAS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaSerie A
DBorussia Dortmund 2-2 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
LBrighton 3-0 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
WNewport County 1-4 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 1. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna.

WAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
WHapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
DAtalanta 0-0 Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 1-0 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AS Roma

M. BahKnee Injury
L. PellegriniThigh Injury
D. RenschMuscle Injury

Atalanta

I. HienMuscle Injury
K. SulemanaKnee Injury
T. KristensenAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AS Roma at 50% to win and Atalanta at 23%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Atalanta Win	23%	@ 4.80	+11.1%
Draw	27%	@ 3.50	-6.1%
AS Roma Win	50%	@ 1.72	-14.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atalanta or Draw at 2.07 (49% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Atalanta or Draw	49%	@ 2.07	+1.3%
AS Roma or Draw	76%	@ 1.17	-11.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	73%	@ 1.32	-3.7%
Over 2.5	49%	@ 1.94	-5.1%
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.28	-5.5%
Under 2.5	51%	@ 1.85	-5.5%
Under 1.5	26%	@ 3.55	-7.1%
Over 3.5	27%	@ 3.35	-9.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.85	-2.5%
BTTS No	47%	@ 1.89	-10.6%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	45%
Dixon-Coles	Home	45%
GradientBoosting	Home	53%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.62 for the home side, 1.03 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 0-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Atalanta?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 74% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Atalanta?

Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta.

What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Atalanta?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.48 for AS Roma and 1.15 for Atalanta. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AS Roma and Atalanta play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.