⚽ Serie A

Atalanta vs Cagliari Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Cagliari in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Atalanta face Cagliari in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Atalanta have 2 wins from their last 5, while Cagliari have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 2, Cagliari won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.8-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Cagliari with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.29

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.78 – 0.83 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	6.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.1%
1	13.1%	10.9%	4.5%	1.2%	0.3%
2	11.6%	9.7%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	6.9%	5.7%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%
4	3.1%	2.6%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Atalanta winDrawCagliari win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Cagliari is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.29, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points no (54%).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.84, 52% model probability, -5.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 60%Draw 26%Cagliari 15%

60%26%15%

60%

Atalanta Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

-5.1%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atalanta and Cagliari. Wins shown from Atalanta’s perspective: Atalanta 2 · 1 drawn · Cagliari 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-27	Cagliari	3 – 2	Atalanta	L
2025-12-13	Atalanta	2 – 1	Cagliari	W
2025-02-15	Atalanta	0 – 0	Cagliari	D
2024-12-14	Cagliari	0 – 1	Atalanta	W
2024-04-07	Cagliari	2 – 1	Atalanta	L

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at AS Roma.

LAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
WHapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
DAtalanta 0-0 Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference

Cagliari

Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Lecce. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Hellas Verona.

WCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LCagliari 1-2 Hellas VeronaCoppa Italia
LCagliari 0-1 InterSerie A
WParma 0-1 CagliariSerie A
WCagliari 1-0 ArezzoCoppa Italia

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atalanta

G. GaetanoSuspended (red card)
I. HienMuscle Injury
K. SulemanaKnee Injury

Cagliari

M. FeliciKnee Injury
R. IdrissiKnee Injury
Y. TrepyInjury
Y. MinaCalf Injury
M. NzolaLacking Match Fitness

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 60% to win and Cagliari at 15%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	26%	@ 4.00	+3.2%
Cagliari Win	15%	@ 6.50	-4.4%
Atalanta Win	60%	@ 1.49	-11.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cagliari or Draw at 2.50 (39% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Cagliari or Draw	39%	@ 2.50	-3.6%
Atalanta or Draw	83%	@ 1.10	-8.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	52%	@ 1.84	-5.1%
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.29	-5.2%
Under 3.5	73%	@ 1.29	-5.3%
Over 2.5	48%	@ 1.95	-5.6%
Over 3.5	27%	@ 3.45	-8.2%
Under 1.5	26%	@ 3.45	-8.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	46%	@ 2.05	-4.9%
BTTS No	54%	@ 1.72	-7.8%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Cagliari?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.29, with 74% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Cagliari?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.8-0.8 scoreline for Atalanta vs Cagliari.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Cagliari?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.78 for Atalanta and 0.83 for Cagliari. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Cagliari play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.