Sat 12 Sep1-2Finished

⚽ Serie A

Atalanta vs Cagliari Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Cagliari in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari

Atalanta vs Cagliari finished 1-2. Cagliari won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.29, landed.

Atalanta face Cagliari in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Atalanta have 2 wins from their last 5, while Cagliari have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 2, Cagliari won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.8-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Cagliari with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.29

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.78 – 0.83 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	6.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.1%
1	13.1%	10.9%	4.5%	1.2%	0.3%
2	11.6%	9.7%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	6.9%	5.7%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%
4	3.1%	2.6%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Atalanta winDrawCagliari win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Cagliari comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.29, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 60%Draw 26%Cagliari 15%

60%26%15%

60%

Atalanta Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atalanta and Cagliari. Wins shown from Atalanta’s perspective: Atalanta 2 · 1 drawn · Cagliari 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Atalanta	1 – 2	Cagliari	L
2026-04-27	Cagliari	3 – 2	Atalanta	L
2025-12-13	Atalanta	2 – 1	Cagliari	W
2025-02-15	Atalanta	0 – 0	Cagliari	D
2024-12-14	Cagliari	0 – 1	Atalanta	W

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Juventus.

LJuventus 2-0 AtalantaSerie A
LAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
LAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
WHapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference

Cagliari

Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Udinese. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Hellas Verona.

WUdinese 0-1 CagliariSerie A
WAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
WCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LCagliari 1-2 Hellas VeronaCoppa Italia
LCagliari 0-1 InterSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atalanta

G. GaetanoSuspended (red card)
I. HienMuscle Injury
K. SulemanaKnee Injury

Cagliari

M. FeliciKnee Injury
R. IdrissiKnee Injury
M. NzolaLacking Match Fitness
Y. TrepyInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 60% to win and Cagliari at 15%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta Win	60%	62%	@ 1.49
Draw	26%	23%	@ 4.00
Cagliari Win	15%	14%	@ 6.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atalanta or Draw at 1.10 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta or Draw	83%	86%	@ 1.10
Cagliari or Draw	39%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	73%	@ 1.29
Under 3.5	73%	73%	@ 1.29
Under 2.5	52%	51%	@ 1.84
Over 2.5	48%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	27%	27%	@ 3.45
Under 1.5	26%	27%	@ 3.45

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	54%	@ 1.72
BTTS Yes	46%	46%	@ 2.05

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atalanta or Cagliari is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta +0.5	83%	83%	1.15
Atalanta +0.25	78%	80%	1.19
Cagliari +2	73%	79%	1.21
Atalanta 0	72%	78%	1.23
Cagliari +1.75	68%	72%	1.33
Atalanta -0.25	67%	67%	1.42
Cagliari +1.5	63%	65%	1.46
Atalanta -0.5	62%	59%	1.61
Cagliari +1.25	57%	60%	1.58
Atalanta -0.75	55%	54%	1.79
Cagliari +1	51%	54%	1.77
Atalanta -1	49%	46%	@ 2.08
Cagliari +0.75	45%	46%	2.10
Atalanta -1.25	43%	40%	@ 2.42
Cagliari +0.5	39%	41%	2.35
Atalanta -1.5	37%	35%	@ 2.75
Cagliari +0.25	33%	33%	2.92
Atalanta -1.75	32%	28%	@ 3.39
Cagliari 0	28%	22%	@ 4.25
Atalanta -2	27%	21%	@ 4.59
Cagliari -0.25	22%	20%	@ 4.81
Cagliari -0.5	17%	17%	5.50

📈 How the market moved

Atalanta 59%Draw 24%Cagliari 17%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Cagliari?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.29, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Cagliari?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.8-0.8 scoreline for Atalanta vs Cagliari.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Cagliari?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.78 for Atalanta and 0.83 for Cagliari. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Cagliari play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.