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⚽ Serie A

Atalanta vs Frosinone Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Frosinone in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Atalanta face Frosinone in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Atalanta have 1 win from their last 5, while Frosinone have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Atalanta won 1, Frosinone won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.9-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Frosinone with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Atalanta Win @ 1.75

64%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.93 – 1.21 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.3%	5.2%	3.2%	1.3%	0.4%
1	8.4%	10.1%	6.1%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.1%	9.8%	5.9%	2.4%	0.7%
3	5.2%	6.3%	3.8%	1.5%	0.5%
4	2.5%	3.0%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Atalanta winDrawFrosinone win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Frosinone comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is an Atalanta win at odds 1.75, with a 64% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 64%Draw 18%Frosinone 18%

64%18%18%

64%

Atalanta Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Atalanta and Frosinone. Wins shown from Atalanta’s perspective: Atalanta 1 · Frosinone 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-01-15	Atalanta	5 – 0	Frosinone	W
2023-08-26	Frosinone	2 – 1	Atalanta	L

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Pafos. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at AC Milan.

LAC Milan 3-2 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 3-1 PafosUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 3-1 VeneziaSerie A
LJuventus 2-0 AtalantaSerie A
LAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A

Frosinone

Frosinone come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Sassuolo. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Napoli.

WFrosinone 4-2 SassuoloSerie A
LNapoli 3-0 FrosinoneSerie A
WFrosinone 2-0 ComoSerie A
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
WFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atalanta

K. SulemanaJumpers Knee
I. HienMuscle Bruise

Frosinone

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 64% to win and Frosinone at 18%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta Win	64%	54%	@ 1.75
Frosinone Win	18%	22%	@ 4.33
Draw	18%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atalanta or Draw at 1.22 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta or Draw	84%	78%	@ 1.22
Frosinone or Draw	38%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	82%	84%	@ 1.12
Under 3.5	62%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	61%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	39%	32%	@ 3.00
Over 3.5	38%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	18%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	42%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Atalanta 54%Draw 23%Frosinone 23%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Our model's pick is an Atalanta win at odds 1.75, with a 64% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 54%.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline for Atalanta vs Frosinone.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Frosinone?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.93 for Atalanta and 1.21 for Frosinone. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Frosinone play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.