⚽ La Liga
Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:15 UTC.
Result: Athletic Club 3-0 Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid finished 3-0. Athletic Club won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Athletic Club face Atlético Madrid in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:15 UTC. Recent form: Athletic Club have 1 win from their last 5, while Atlético Madrid have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Athletic Club won 2, Atlético Madrid won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.3-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Athletic Club and Atlético Madrid. Wins shown from Athletic Club’s perspective: Athletic Club 2 · Atlético Madrid 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Athletic Club | 3 – 0 | Atlético Madrid | W |
| 2026-04-25 | Atlético Madrid | 3 – 2 | Athletic Club | L |
| 2025-12-06 | Athletic Club | 1 – 0 | Atlético Madrid | W |
| 2025-03-01 | Atlético Madrid | 1 – 0 | Athletic Club | L |
| 2024-08-31 | Athletic Club | 0 – 1 | Atlético Madrid | L |
📈 Recent form
Athletic Club come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Atlético Madrid. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Barcelona.
- DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
- DAthletic Club 1-1 ElcheLa Liga
- WAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- WCelta Vigo 0-2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- LBarcelona 2-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Atlético Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Liverpool.
- WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
- WAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
- WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
- LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. CanalesMuscle Injury
- A. DjaloCoach's decision
- U. EgiluzKnee Injury
- N. SerranoCoach's decision
- D. VivianHamstring Injury
- A. SorlothMuscle Injury
- O. VargasCoach's decision
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Athletic Club at 30% to win and Atlético Madrid at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid Win | 42% | 42% | @ 2.28 |
| Athletic Club Win | 30% | 31% | @ 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Madrid or Draw at 1.36 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid or Draw | 69% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Athletic Club or Draw | 57% | 58% | @ 1.61 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 73% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 49% | @ 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 51% | @ 1.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 27% | @ 3.55 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 45% | @ 2.05 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Athletic Club or Atlético Madrid is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid +1.5 | 88% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.25 | 83% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Athletic Club +1.75 | 82% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Athletic Club +1.5 | 79% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Atlético Madrid +1 | 78% | – | 1.17 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.75 | 74% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Athletic Club +1.25 | 74% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.5 | 69% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Athletic Club +1 | 68% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.25 | 63% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Athletic Club +0.75 | 62% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Athletic Club +0.5 | 57% | 59% | 1.63 |
| Atlético Madrid 0 | 56% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 50% | 52% | 1.86 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.25 | 50% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Athletic Club 0 | 44% | 43% | 2.24 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.5 | 43% | 41% | 2.32 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.75 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.78 |
| Athletic Club -0.25 | 37% | 36% | 2.65 |
| Atlético Madrid -1 | 32% | 26% | @ 3.66 |
| Athletic Club -0.5 | 31% | 31% | 3.05 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.25 | 26% | 23% | @ 4.13 |
| Athletic Club -0.75 | 26% | 25% | 3.79 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.5 | 21% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.75 | 18% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Athletic Club -1.25 | 17% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Athletic Club -1.5 | 12% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Athletic Club and 1.44 for Atlético Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Athletic Club and Atlético Madrid play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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