⚽ Brazilian Série A
Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Result: Atlético Mineiro 1-0 Coritiba
Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba finished 1-0. Atlético Mineiro won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Atlético Mineiro face Coritiba in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 21:30 UTC. Recent form: Atlético Mineiro have 3 wins from their last 5, while Coritiba have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Atlético Mineiro won 2, Coritiba won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 2.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Atlético Mineiro and Coritiba. Wins shown from Atlético Mineiro’s perspective: Atlético Mineiro 2 · Coritiba 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Atlético Mineiro | 1 – 0 | Coritiba | W |
| 2026-04-19 | Coritiba | 2 – 0 | Atlético Mineiro | L |
| 2023-10-08 | Atlético Mineiro | 1 – 2 | Coritiba | L |
| 2023-05-20 | Coritiba | 1 – 2 | Atlético Mineiro | W |
📈 Recent form
Atlético Mineiro come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Atletico Torque. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WAtlético Mineiro 1-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- WAtlético Mineiro 3-0 Atletico TorqueCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WAtlético Mineiro 2-1 SantosBrazilian Série A
- DAthletico Paranaense 2-2 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A
- WAtlético Mineiro 1-0 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
Coritiba come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Atlético Mineiro.
- LAtlético Mineiro 1-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 1-1 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
- LFluminense 4-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. CassierraInjury
- EversonFoot Injury
- A. FrancoSuspended (cards)
- FredInjury
- Gustavo ScarpaMuscle Injury
- Ruan TressoldiMuscle Injury
- Lucas RonierKnee Injury
- Lucas TavernaNot in squad
- RichardNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Atlético Mineiro at 55% to win and Coritiba at 17%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro Win | 55% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Coritiba Win | 17% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Mineiro or Draw at 1.11 (81% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro or Draw | 81% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Coritiba or Draw | 42% | 38% | @ 2.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Under 3.5 | 55% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlético Mineiro or Coritiba is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro +0.5 | 81% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Coritiba +2 | 76% | – | 1.23 |
| Atlético Mineiro +0.25 | 75% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Coritiba +1.75 | 71% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Atlético Mineiro 0 | 69% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Coritiba +1.5 | 67% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| Atlético Mineiro -0.25 | 64% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Coritiba +1.25 | 61% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Atlético Mineiro -0.5 | 58% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Coritiba +1 | 54% | 52% | @ 1.86 |
| Atlético Mineiro -0.75 | 52% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Coritiba +0.75 | 48% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1 | 46% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Coritiba +0.5 | 42% | 40% | @ 2.39 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1.25 | 39% | 41% | 2.31 |
| Coritiba +0.25 | 36% | 32% | @ 2.99 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1.5 | 33% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Coritiba 0 | 31% | 22% | @ 4.38 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1.75 | 29% | 30% | 3.17 |
| Coritiba -0.25 | 25% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Coritiba -0.5 | 19% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 2.3-1.2 scoreline for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.28 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.16 for Coritiba. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Atlético Mineiro and Coritiba play?
Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 21:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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