Sat 12 Sep3-1Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Atlético Mineiro 3-1 Fluminense

Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense finished 3-1. Atlético Mineiro won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.40, landed.

Atlético Mineiro face Fluminense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Atlético Mineiro have 2 wins from their last 5, while Fluminense have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Atlético Mineiro won 2, Fluminense won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.36

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.60 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	7.4%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
1	10.3%	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.4%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Atlético Mineiro winDrawFluminense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Atlético Mineiro 44%Draw 27%Fluminense 29%

44%27%29%

44%

Atlético Mineiro Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atlético Mineiro and Fluminense. Wins shown from Atlético Mineiro’s perspective: Atlético Mineiro 2 · 2 drawn · Fluminense 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Atlético Mineiro	3 – 1	Fluminense	W
2024-08-25	Atlético Mineiro	0 – 2	Fluminense	L
2024-05-04	Fluminense	2 – 2	Atlético Mineiro	D
2023-10-29	Atlético Mineiro	2 – 0	Fluminense	W
2023-06-22	Fluminense	1 – 1	Atlético Mineiro	D

📈 Recent form

Atlético Mineiro

Atlético Mineiro come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Santos. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Santos.

DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
WAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Platense.

WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
LAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WFluminense 2-0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atlético Mineiro

T. BorbasMuscle Injury
L. DuarteHamstring Injury
EversonFoot Injury
T. PerezInjury
Ruan TressoldiMuscle Injury

Fluminense

AlissonHip Injury
G. CanoInjury
HulkNot in squad
IgnacioInjury
John KennedyKnee Injury
Matheus ReisKnee Injury
Samuel XavierShoulder Injury
Thiago SilvaInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atlético Mineiro at 44% to win and Fluminense at 29%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Mineiro Win	44%	43%	@ 2.20
Fluminense Win	29%	28%	@ 3.40
Draw	27%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Mineiro or Draw at 1.30 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Mineiro or Draw	71%	72%	@ 1.30
Fluminense or Draw	55%	57%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	70%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	52%	44%	@ 2.15
Under 2.5	48%	56%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	30%	24%	@ 4.00
Under 1.5	24%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS No	45%	50%	@ 1.91

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlético Mineiro or Fluminense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Mineiro +1.25	84%	86%	1.10
Fluminense +1.75	81%	84%	1.13
Atlético Mineiro +1	80%	85%	1.12
Fluminense +1.5	78%	78%	1.21
Atlético Mineiro +0.75	75%	78%	1.22
Fluminense +1.25	72%	76%	1.25
Atlético Mineiro +0.5	71%	72%	1.32
Fluminense +1	66%	73%	1.30
Atlético Mineiro +0.25	64%	67%	1.42
Fluminense +0.75	61%	64%	1.50
Atlético Mineiro 0	58%	61%	1.57
Fluminense +0.5	55%	57%	1.69
Atlético Mineiro -0.25	51%	51%	1.91
Fluminense +0.25	49%	49%	1.96
Atlético Mineiro -0.5	45%	43%	2.19
Fluminense 0	42%	39%	@ 2.42
Atlético Mineiro -0.75	39%	36%	@ 2.64
Fluminense -0.25	36%	33%	@ 2.87
Atlético Mineiro -1	34%	27%	@ 3.52
Fluminense -0.5	29%	28%	3.38
Atlético Mineiro -1.25	28%	24%	@ 4.00
Fluminense -0.75	25%	22%	@ 4.35
Atlético Mineiro -1.5	22%	22%	4.25
Fluminense -1	20%	15%	@ 6.40
Atlético Mineiro -1.75	19%	16%	@ 5.90
Fluminense -1.25	16%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Atlético Mineiro 43%Draw 29%Fluminense 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense?

Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense.

What is the predicted score for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.14 for Fluminense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atlético Mineiro and Fluminense play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.