Sun 30 Aug3-3Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Athletico Paranaense 3-3 Fluminense

Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Athletico Paranaense face Fluminense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Athletico Paranaense have 3 wins from their last 5, while Fluminense have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Fluminense won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Fluminense +1.25 @ 1.25

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.48 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	8.4%	3.9%	1.2%	0.3%
1	13.3%	12.4%	5.7%	1.8%	0.4%
2	9.8%	9.1%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	4.9%	4.5%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Athletico Paranaense winDrawFluminense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Fluminense with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Athletico Paranaense 42%Draw 30%Fluminense 28%

42%30%28%

42%

Athletico Paranaense Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Athletico Paranaense and Fluminense. Wins shown from Athletico Paranaense’s perspective: 3 drawn · Fluminense 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-30	Athletico Paranaense	3 – 3	Fluminense	D
2024-12-01	Athletico Paranaense	1 – 1	Fluminense	D
2024-10-22	Fluminense	1 – 0	Athletico Paranaense	L
2023-08-27	Athletico Paranaense	2 – 2	Fluminense	D
2023-04-22	Fluminense	2 – 0	Athletico Paranaense	L

📈 Recent form

Athletico Paranaense

Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Bahia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Cruzeiro.

WAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
DAthletico Paranaense 3-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 2-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Platense.

WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
LAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WFluminense 2-0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Athletico Paranaense

ClaudinhoMuscle Injury
L. EsquivelAnkle Injury
GilbertoAnkle Injury
Leo DerikThigh Injury

Fluminense

HerculesSuspended (cards)
Igor RabelloInjury
John KennedyKnee Injury
Matheus ReisKnee Injury
Samuel XavierShoulder Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Athletico Paranaense at 42% to win and Fluminense at 28%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Athletico Paranaense Win	42%	43%	@ 2.14
Draw	30%	30%	@ 3.10
Fluminense Win	28%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Athletico Paranaense or Draw at 1.28 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Athletico Paranaense or Draw	70%	73%	@ 1.28
Fluminense or Draw	56%	57%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	79%	@ 1.19
Over 1.5	69%	67%	@ 1.42
Under 2.5	57%	59%	@ 1.60
Over 2.5	43%	41%	@ 2.32
Under 1.5	31%	33%	@ 2.85
Over 3.5	22%	21%	@ 4.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	53%	@ 1.76
BTTS Yes	48%	47%	@ 1.95

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Athletico Paranaense or Fluminense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense +1.75	82%	84%	1.13
Fluminense +1.5	79%	77%	1.20
Athletico Paranaense +1	79%	86%	1.10
Athletico Paranaense +0.75	74%	79%	1.20
Fluminense +1.25	73%	76%	1.25
Athletico Paranaense +0.5	70%	73%	1.29
Fluminense +1	68%	73%	1.30
Athletico Paranaense +0.25	63%	68%	1.40
Fluminense +0.75	62%	63%	1.50
Athletico Paranaense 0	57%	62%	1.53
Fluminense +0.5	56%	56%	1.69
Athletico Paranaense -0.25	50%	51%	1.87
Fluminense +0.25	50%	49%	1.99
Athletico Paranaense -0.5	44%	44%	2.12
Fluminense 0	43%	38%	@ 2.46
Athletico Paranaense -0.75	38%	37%	2.56
Fluminense -0.25	37%	32%	@ 2.97
Athletico Paranaense -1	32%	27%	@ 3.47
Fluminense -0.5	30%	27%	@ 3.43
Athletico Paranaense -1.25	27%	24%	@ 3.90
Fluminense -0.75	26%	21%	@ 4.57
Fluminense -1	21%	14%	@ 6.80
Athletico Paranaense -1.5	21%	23%	4.12
Athletico Paranaense -1.75	18%	16%	@ 5.90

📈 How the market moved

Athletico Paranaense 44%Draw 30%Fluminense 27%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

Our model's main pick is Fluminense with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense.

What is the predicted score for Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.48 for Athletico Paranaense and 0.93 for Fluminense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Athletico Paranaense and Fluminense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.