Sat 17 Oct0-2Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Athletico Paranaense 0-2 Palmeiras

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras finished 0-2. Palmeiras won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Athletico Paranaense face Palmeiras in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Athletico Paranaense have 1 win from their last 5, while Palmeiras have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Athletico Paranaense won 1, Palmeiras won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.1-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Palmeiras +0.75 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 73%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.07 – 1.27 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.6%	12.2%	7.8%	3.3%	1.0%
1	10.3%	13.1%	8.3%	3.5%	1.1%
2	5.5%	7.0%	4.4%	1.9%	0.6%
3	2.0%	2.5%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Athletico Paranaense winDrawPalmeiras win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is Palmeiras with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Athletico Paranaense 28%Draw 31%Palmeiras 41%

28%31%41%

41%

Palmeiras Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Athletico Paranaense and Palmeiras. Wins shown from Athletico Paranaense’s perspective: Athletico Paranaense 1 · Palmeiras 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-17	Athletico Paranaense	0 – 2	Palmeiras	L
2026-04-19	Palmeiras	1 – 0	Athletico Paranaense	L
2024-09-01	Athletico Paranaense	0 – 2	Palmeiras	L
2024-05-12	Palmeiras	0 – 2	Athletico Paranaense	W
2023-11-05	Palmeiras	1 – 0	Athletico Paranaense	L

📈 Recent form

Athletico Paranaense

Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Chapecoense. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Palmeiras.

LAthletico Paranaense 0-2 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
WChapecoense 1-4 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
DAthletico Paranaense 2-2 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A
WAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Corinthians. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.

WAthletico Paranaense 0-2 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 BahiaBrazilian Série A
DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Athletico Paranaense

G. BenavidezMuscle Injury
K. A. Calderon VargasNot in squad
DantasNot in squad
Gilberto JuniorLoan agreement
C. TeranNot in squad

Palmeiras

A. GiaySuspended (cards)
G. GomezSuspended (cards)
JefteKnee Injury
Vitor RoqueNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Athletico Paranaense at 28% to win and Palmeiras at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	41%	39%	@ 2.45
Draw	31%	28%	@ 3.40
Athletico Paranaense Win	28%	33%	@ 2.88

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.40 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras or Draw	69%	67%	@ 1.40
Athletico Paranaense or Draw	57%	61%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	68%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	58%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	42%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	32%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	21%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	45%	@ 2.05
BTTS Yes	48%	55%	@ 1.70

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Athletico Paranaense or Palmeiras is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras +1.5	88%	84%	1.13
Palmeiras +1.25	83%	83%	1.15
Athletico Paranaense +1.75	82%	85%	1.12
Athletico Paranaense +1.5	79%	80%	1.18
Palmeiras +1	78%	81%	1.18
Palmeiras +0.75	74%	73%	1.30
Athletico Paranaense +1.25	74%	78%	1.22
Palmeiras +0.5	69%	66%	1.44
Athletico Paranaense +1	68%	76%	1.25
Palmeiras +0.25	63%	61%	1.56
Athletico Paranaense +0.75	62%	67%	1.41
Athletico Paranaense +0.5	57%	61%	1.56
Palmeiras 0	56%	54%	@ 1.79
Athletico Paranaense +0.25	50%	55%	1.74
Palmeiras -0.25	50%	45%	@ 2.10
Athletico Paranaense 0	44%	46%	2.10
Palmeiras -0.5	43%	39%	@ 2.42
Palmeiras -0.75	38%	33%	@ 2.91
Athletico Paranaense -0.25	37%	39%	2.43
Palmeiras -1	32%	24%	@ 3.97
Athletico Paranaense -0.5	31%	34%	2.81
Palmeiras -1.25	26%	22%	@ 4.33
Athletico Paranaense -0.75	26%	27%	3.51
Athletico Paranaense -1	22%	19%	@ 4.96
Palmeiras -1.5	21%	20%	4.80
Palmeiras -1.75	18%	15%	@ 6.40
Athletico Paranaense -1.25	17%	17%	5.50
Athletico Paranaense -1.5	13%	16%	5.90

📈 How the market moved

Athletico Paranaense 33%Draw 28%Palmeiras 39%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

Our pick is Palmeiras with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline for Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras.

What is the predicted score for Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.07 for Athletico Paranaense and 1.27 for Palmeiras. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Athletico Paranaense and Palmeiras play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.